000
FXUS62 KTAE 211950
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
250 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT
(TLH) TIED THE PRECIOUS RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...AND APALACHICOLA (AAF) SET A NEW RECORD OF 31 UNDER THE
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WHICH ALLOWED FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. NONE OF THE REPORTING COOP SITES WERE ANY COLDER THAN
TLH...BUT SEVERAL LOCATIONS DID REPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S WHICH DID
VERIFY A GOOD PORTION OF THE FCST HARD FREEZE. THIS AFTERNOON...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO RECOVER QUITE STEADILY UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MOST
AREAS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA...WINDS ARE VEERING AROUND TO THE ESE AND SE...BUT
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 10 KT RANGE WITH 2 FT SEAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...IN THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE
MEAN TROF WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S...THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS IS ALREADY MARCHING EASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE A
THIN LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH IS CURRENTLY HOLDING TOGETHER ALONG A NE
TO SW LINE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE DECREASING WITH
TIME AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA...SO EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A
BRIEF SHOWER OR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WHEN IT ENTERS OUR VICINITY AS
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE SHORT DURATION
RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
LIGHT RAIN TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF SE AL WHERE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...MAY ONLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE OF RAIN IN A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR 2. BEHIND
THIS FRONT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS AIR MASS TO BE QUITE AS
COLD AS THE ONE FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND. THEREFORE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE ON SUN OR MON NIGHT...BUT A COUPLE OF WIDESPREAD
LIGHT FREEZES CERTAINLY APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AT SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL LINGER INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
GET NO CLOSER THAN THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...STILL LOOKING AT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING (EXCEPTION MAY BE SE ALA/SW GA)
BUT ABOVE HARD FREEZE LEVELS. HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH VEERING WINDS TO ELY TUES AND SELY BY WED...BUT HIGH CONTINUES
TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE...ALOFT H5
TROUGH EXITS EWD INTO ATLC BY TUES AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR ZONAL
(FLAT RIDGE) BY WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING TOWARD ON
THURS. THEN...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
MIDWEST AND BEGINS TO AMPLIFY MID-CONUS TROUGH SEWD. THIS WILL ALLOW
DEEP LAYER LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD WITH GFS MORE BULLISH BRINGING IT THRU LATE FRI
OR EARLY SAT WITH A THIN BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ON FRI. ECMWF
WITH WEAKER FRONT FIZZLING OUT NW OF CWA AND LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE
REACHING CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF APALACH RIVER. THIS FAR OUT FOR
LEAN TOWARDS DRIER SOLUTION SO AOB 20 PCT POPS END OF EXTENDED
PERIOD. AS FAR AS TEMPS...AFTER BELOW NORMAL MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT
EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
ABOVE CLIMO...REACHING THE LOW-MID 70S THURS-FRI BEFORE ADDED CLOUDS
ASSOCD WITH FRONT DROP TEMPS TO CLIMO OR NEAR 70. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL CREEP UP TO CLIMO...MID-UPPER 40S WED NIGHT AND ABOVE
CLIMO...LOW 50S THURS AND FRI NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...S-SW WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THEY WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO HIGH END
SCEC OR LOW END SCA OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HIGH THE WINDS WILL BECOME...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A HAZARD GRID FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER NE
NOCTURNAL SURGE TO SCEC/SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL AND THEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS
OF SUNDAY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AT KDHN CAN NOT
BE RULE OUT. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VIS RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE COOL AND DRY PATTERN NOW WELL ESTABLISHED
...SEVERAL DAYS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RECENT RAINFALL HAS PUSHED THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER ABOVE
ACTION STAGE AT THOMASVILLE (GA) AND CONCORD (FL)...BUT THESE STAGES
SHOULD LEVEL OUT THEN FALL VERY SOON BEFORE ANY MINOR FLOODING
BECOMES A CONCERN. ALSO...WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN EXPECTED TO BE VERY
DRY...THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS
QUITE SLIM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 35 63 27 63 28 / 10 10 00 00 00
PANAMA CITY 43 61 32 61 35 / 20 05 00 00 00
DOTHAN 37 59 28 60 32 / 30 05 00 00 00
ALBANY 37 59 26 61 29 / 20 10 00 00 00
VALDOSTA 35 63 27 62 29 / 10 10 00 00 00
CROSS CITY 37 66 28 63 31 / 10 10 00 00 00
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
RED FLAG WARNING SUNDAY AFTN ALL ZONES.
FIRE WX WATCH MONDAY AFTN ALL ZONES.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTN ALL ZONES.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...
DOUGHERTY...EARLY...IRWIN...LEE...MILLER...MITCHELL...
QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...TERRELL...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.
FIRE WX WATCH MONDAY AFTN ALL ZONES.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING ALL ZONES.
RED FLAG WARNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
FIRE WX WATCH MONDAY AFTN ALL ZONES.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
LONG TERM...BLOCK
