000
FXUS61 KCAR 060747
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
247 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CREST
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE NEW LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE BAY OF
FUNDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
BUFKIT INDICATES LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF STRATUS CUMULUS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS PROVIDING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THERE TODAY. CAN`T
RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO, BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL ONLY INCLUDE SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNGLIDE WILL CREATE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVER DOWNEAST. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY,
PREFER THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS,
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE USUALLY TOO WARM WITH THIS SCENARIO SO WILL FOLLOW
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT. HIGH TO MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS DOWNEAST SECTIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW ZERO
THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AS A SECONDARY LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE GULF OF MAINE. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SNOW REACHING NORTHERN
MAINE AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS AGREE ON A MODERATE
SNOWFALL EVENT WITH 6-8 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF IS COMING CLOSE TO 10 INCHES OVER SOME OF THE CENTRAL MAINE
HIGHLANDS. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER. WE WILL BE ISSUING
WATCHES FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THOUGH RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR MEETING WARNING CRITERIA IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. MOST MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
NOW THE GFS ARE SHEARING THE SECONDARY LOW AND ITS MOISTURE OUT
TO SEA BEFORE IT CAN APPRECIABLY DEVELOP. THIS WOULD LEAVE ONLY
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS. THERE`S STILL A CHANCE THE UPPER LOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PULL THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW BACK IN BRINGING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY SO MENTIONING CHC SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL LOWER TO IFR THEN LIFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. LIFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY CAN BE EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG SCA CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
A STRONG SCA OR GALE MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. A GALE MAY THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN
WEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER/BLOOMER
