000
FXUS64 KMRX 060828
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TN BORDER. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT OVER THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE PLATEAU BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A LONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC REGION...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A FAIRLY NEUTRAL
VERTICAL PROFILE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST NC. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS
EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
PLAN TO MENTION SCATTERED TSTORMS AREAWIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ALSO...A FAIRLY STRONG 850 MB JET (AROUND 50 KT) MAY HELP TO CREATE
SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW TSTORMS...SO WILL PLAN TO MENTION
THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES
(WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE) WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER INDICATES THAT SEVERAL RIVERS IN THE FORECAST AREA (PIGEON...
SEQUATCHIE...SOUTH CHICKAMAUGA...CLINCH...AND NORTH FORK OF THE
HOLSTON) MAY FLOOD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THIS FORECASTED RAINFALL.
THUS...WILL PLAN TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AND LOOK REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH STILL ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS AND LIKELY IN THE SOUTH. UPPER LOW FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR BOTH PERIODS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH. COLDER AIR ALSO FILTERING INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS...IT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THOSE AREAS...
BUT LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
SATURDAY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON
MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 48 50 33 46 / 100 100 60 20 10
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 60 48 48 30 41 / 100 100 80 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 60 48 48 29 40 / 100 100 80 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 47 47 30 38 / 100 100 80 30 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CHEROKEE...CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...BRADLEY...
CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...
GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...
MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST
CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...NORTHWEST
MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...
SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...UNION...WASHINGTON
TN...WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
DMG/GH
