000
FXUS63 KIWX 311051
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
651 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVELS RATHER STABLE TODAY SO ONLY CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CIRRUS FROM DISSIPATED PLAINS/UPR MDWST THUNDERSTORMS. A
WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SW-W WINDS
AHEAD OF IT ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NRN INDIANA. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME STRATUS/BR BUT MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON
THE EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE AND GIVEN SPARSENESS OF LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS UPSTREAM ATTM... LEFT CONDITIONS VFR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011/
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPR FLOW OVER THE CONUS AMPLIFIES. A WK CDFNT
MOVG INTO THE UPR GRTLKS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS TODAY AND
TNGT AND THEN MIX OUT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
INCRSG DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM NW-
SE ACROSS THE AREA... BUT REMAINS DOUBTFUL IF THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THIS WK BOUNDARY TO FORCE DEEP CONVECTION...
SO FOR NOW STUCK WITH DRY FCST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF STRONG UPR HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WITH NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE
L90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE M90S IN DRY FWA AREA...AND
ONLY IN THE UPR 80S NEAR THE LAKE WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS LIKELY IN
VCNTY OF DYING FRONT AND WINDS VEERING NW OFF SLIGHTLY COOLER LAKE
MICHIGAN.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAGGING SOUTH FROM IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON TIMING ON TUESDAY TO NW AREAS STARTING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW LEANING TOWARDS TUES AFTN AT THE
EARLIEST /MAYBE TOO EARLY/. BEST CHANCE STILL LINES UP TUESDAY
NIGHT. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF MSTR AND
SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER IN NW AREAS BUT
HOLDING SHY OF LIKELY POPS UNTIL FINER DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
AGREE WITH PREV SHIFT THAT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SWEEP
THINGS OUT OF HERE DURING THE FIRST PART OF WEDS. SLGT TO CHC POPS
IN SE HALF STILL REASONABLE WITH FURTHER REFINEMENT OF DEPARTURE
LIKELY IN NEXT FORECAST OR 2. RIDGE WILL GRAB HOLD AGAIN FOR A FEW
DAYS...WITH NEXT WAVE SET TO MOVE IN THURS NGT INTO FRIDAY. POSITION
AND TIMING OF THIS WAVE REMAIN A CONCERN. POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME
STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH TRIM BACK IN PAST FORECAST MAY HAVE
BEEN A BIT PREMATURE BUT STILL A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AOA NORMAL WITH WARMEST
DAY AT THIS POINT BEING TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AOA 90 IN MANY SPOTS VS
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IF WARM FRONT TOWARDS
END OF THE WEEK IS SLOWER...HIGHS COULD END UP A TOUCH COOLER AS
WELL.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT
