000
FXUS61 KOKX 022348
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THEN SLIDE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
2330Z UPDATE...WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL NEW ENGLAND
WILL SWING THRU THE CWA THIS EVE RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
N. UPR FORCING IS LIMITED SO WILL KEEP THE PASSAGE DRY.
OTHERWISE...18Z MODELS NOT PICKING UP THE CONVECTION ACROSS WRN
PA. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING FCST AND KEEP
CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS WRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS AND OTHER
HOURLY FIELDS TWEAKED WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND WEAKENS. MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS LOW
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AS A VORT MAX ROTATES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
LOW. CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG REMAINS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
CONNECTICUT...HOWEVER MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS INTO THIS EVENING AND
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP CONNECTICUT DRY THIS
EVENING.
FARTHER TO THE WEST DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL START TO BRING POPS INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES TOWARD MORNING IS ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
NAM IS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL BE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. WILL TAPER POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST...FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND WEAK RIDGING BY SATURDAY. AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THEN...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DRIVING
A SURFACE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT THIS
POINT...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. LOW PRES APPROACHES LATE IN
THE DAY...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO AT LEAST MVFR STARTING AROUND 21Z
WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
CHANCES FOR THUNDER...SO WILL NOT MENTION CB GROUPS IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEPARTS AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A N-NW FLOW THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5 KT OR LESS LATER TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRES...WINDS SHIFT S-SW AND INCREASE TO
5-10 KT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA...IMPROVING TOWARDS
THU MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA TAPER OFF.
THU-FRI...VFR.
SAT-SUN...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE LOW OFF THE COAST OF MAINE WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. THEN...SEAS WILL LIKELY
BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FARTHER EAST. DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MAS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
