000
FXUS61 KOKX 280207
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
907 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
IN INTENSE STORM CENTERED IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL PULL SLOWLY
AWAY...CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND PASSING EAST OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO MID WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF AN INTENSE STORM NOW MOVING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUOY OBS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SUGGEST
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THIS SYSTEM IS NOW ABOUT 956MB!!
LOCALLY...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH AT TIMES...WITH
BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY AT LOCAL AIRPORTS. WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TRAVELING CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE. THEREFORE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL BE EXTENDED TO 9AM TO INCLUDE THE MORNING RUSH. MOST TRAIN
SERVICE INTO AND OUT OF NYC HAS BEEN HALTED BY THE STORM...AND
THUS ICY ROADS MAY BE MORE ON AN IMPACT IF MORE PEOPLE DRIVE TO
WORK.
THIS WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL COVER ALL POST STORM HAZARDS
INCLUDING WIND, BLOWING SNOW AND BLACK ICE...WHICH MADE FOR A
SMOOTHER TRANSITION FROM THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS AND SHOULD NOW
PROVIDE ONE STOP SHOPPING FOR WHAT ARE STILL WINTER WX HAZARDS.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR 20 IN NYC AND IN THE TEENS ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH WIND CHILLS 0 TO -5 INLAND AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO IN NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NW FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES TO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA FROM ABOUT NYC NORTH/WEST TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
UPSLOPE FLOW JUST NW OF THE CWA ALSO HELPING TO MAINTAIN THESE
CLOUDS DESPITE LOCAL DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW AND MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
VORT ADVECTION. NO FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IN FORECAST YET BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS.
THEREAFTER...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH
THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS RUNNING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW MAV MOS...RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MINOR MELTING OF SNOW PACK...WITH
COLD GROUND TEMPS PLUS REFREEZING LEADING TO BLACK ICE PROBLEMS
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVERHEAD
COULD BE THE COLDEST OF THIS TIME FRAME OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS IN OUTLYING AREAS AS SNOW PACK SHOULD STILL BE FRESH
ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL/ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
DIVERGE A BIT WITH HANDLING OF UPSTREAM DIGGING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DIGGING AND STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. RIDGE OVER THE EAST AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THIS
RIDGE EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO LOWERING HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH TREKS
EASTWARD. PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SATURDAY AS DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. AS SUCH...FEEL AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY. OP GFS JUST A TAD FASTER THAN 00Z EC AND HPC SOLUTIONS.
GEFS MEAN SLOWER AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN
EXPECTED AMPLIFIED PATTERN.
THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL
BEHIND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. AS A RESULT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT WITH
STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE.
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD REACH THE
TERMINAL ON TUE. LOW CHC OF THIS. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL REDUCED
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
WINDS WILL ABATE SOME OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF NYC
TERMINALS...BUT STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER SUNRISE ON
TUE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN A BIT WEAKER THAN TODAY. MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS COMPRESSION ISSUES
DEPENDING ON THE RECONSTRUCTED SCHEDULED ARRIVALS AT NYC
TERMINALS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310
DEGREES ON TUE...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN 270 AND 310. WINDS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310
DEGREES ON TUE...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN 270 AND 310. WINDS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310
DEGREES ON TUE...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN 270 AND 310. WINDS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310
DEGREES ON TUE...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN 270 AND 310. WINDS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310
DEGREES ON TUE...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN 270 AND 310. WINDS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WNW WINDS DIMINISHING.
WED-FRI...VFR.
SAT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SOLID GALES CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AND A BRIEF GUST UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE
EARLY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT...FIRST ON THE HARBOR
AND WESTERN SOUND BY MIDNIGHT...THEN ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS BY
DAYBREAK TUE. MINIMAL GALES COULD CONTINUE ON THE OUTER OCEAN
WATERS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN INTO WED
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THU MORNING...AND THE HARBOR/SOUND/BAYS INTO
TUE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WED MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LITTLE MELTING OF SNOW
PACK THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH TEMPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 40 THROUGH
FRI. WE SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL MELTING THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPS REACH THE 40S.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF AROUND -1.5 FT
SHOULD REMAIN STEADY STATE OR LESSEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...WITH MOST
IF NOT ALL SPOTS REMAINING ABOVE LOW WATER BENCHMARKS. NYC BATTERY
HAD A 1.8 FT NEGATIVE DEPARTURE THIS PAST CYCLE. CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT HIT THE 2 FT BENCHMARK WITH
WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
OKX WSR-88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE...AND THE DATA FEED
TO THE TJFK TDWR HAS ALSO BEEN LOST. TECHNICIANS HAVE PARTS ON
ORDER FOR THE OKX WSR-88D AND THE PHONE COMPANY HAS BEEN CONTACTED
TO REPAIR THE LINE PROBLEM WITH TJFK. ESTIMATED TIMES OF REPAIR ARE
UNKNOWN ATTM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/BS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KCS
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BS
EQUIPMENT...GOODMAN
