000
FXHW60 PHFO 032019
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1019 AM HST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF RETURN OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES. THE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS WEEKEND
AS A WEAKENING RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO RETURN NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WHILE THE
SMALLER ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MORNING...SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ORIGINATING FROM THE BIG ISLAND PLUME ARE MOVING
UP OVER KAUAI AND OAHU IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. MINIMAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KAUAI AND SEA
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...WITH SOME SHOWERS FORMING OVER INTERIOR ISLAND SECTIONS.
UPPER AND MIDLEVEL RIDGING HAVE CREATED A STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
KEEPING ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM. BIG ISLAND SHOWERS
WILL FOCUS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE AS THE TRADE WINDS RETURN TO THE
ISLAND.
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL FILTER IN TO ALL THE ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF THE ISLAND.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER THAN NORMAL AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
STABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEAST AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OAHU THEN STALLING IT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR KAUAI AND OAHU.
&&
.MARINE...
BUOY 51001 SHOWS THE NEW NORTHWEST SWELL ENTERING HAWAII WATERS A
BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...SO HAVE POSTED A HIGH SURF WARNING FOR
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15 FEET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND 25 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
HAVE POSTED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MOLOKAI AND MAUI...AS THE SWELL SHOULD BE PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY
OAHU AND KAUAI.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI
AND OAHU.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI.
&&
$$
MORRISON
