000
FXUS64 KFWD 032329
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
529 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
.UPDATE...
A NEW ZONE PACKAGE TO BE ISSUED TO RISE POPS THROUGH 9 PM OVER
ANDERSON AND LEON COUNTIES. SOME STORNG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED. ONE OR TWO STORMS MIGHT REACH MARGINAL SEVERE FOR 5
OR 10 MINUTES. CURRENTLY...HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO ONE INCH IS THE
MAIN PROBLEM. 75
75
&&
.AVIATION...
520 PM
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. NORTH WINDS STILL GUSTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20 MPH RANGE...BUT WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
SWITCH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 14 MPH ON THURSDAY. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008/
COLD FRONT IS MAKING SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CLEAR OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
6PM. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM 10 TO 20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. RED FLAG WARNING
ALSO CONTINUES THROUGH 8PM FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR AREA DUE
TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND THE GUSTY WINDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SHOWN CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...BUT THUS FAR THIS
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT HAS REMAINED RATHER MEAGER. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AMONG THE MORE
ROBUST MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THEREFORE...WILL CARRY 10 POPS AND MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL END ABRUPTLY ONCE FRONT TRANSLATES THE
REMAINDER OF OUR CWA.
TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. A FEW LOW LYING
AREAS IN THE DFW METRO MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DIP BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 32F.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY.
A COLDER NIGHT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT. DFW AIRPORT WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE AT OBTAINING THE FIRST OFFICIAL FREEZE FOR THE SEASON.
OUTLYING AREAS IN THE METRO SHOULD EASILY DIP BELOW FREEZING...AS
WILL MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS.
EXPECT A DRY WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH
MONDAY. OUR NEXT FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUFFER WITH RESOLVING NEXT WEEK/S
SOLUTION...AND ARE PLAGUED BY RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND CLEARING ON TUESDAY. WILL
ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK MODERATE...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DAY 6
THROUGH 7 TIME FRAME. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 34 52 31 52 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 35 54 30 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 30 49 27 49 30 / 5 0 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 29 50 28 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 32 50 25 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 33 50 30 51 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 35 50 30 52 34 / 5 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 36 53 28 51 34 / 5 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 36 53 31 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>102-115>117-129>131-141-142.
&&
$$
80/75
