000
FXUS62 KFFC 032223 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
308 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH STRETCHES FROM ABOUT DALLAS TO CHICAGO AND IS
SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST. CURRENT TREND WITH MODELS IS TO
SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE STATE DUE TO A LOSS IN ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. FOR THIS REASON HAVE FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WITH
THIS PACKAGE. STILL LOOKING FOR A NARROW LINE OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE LIFTED INDICES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN THE AREA OF +8...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. MAY SEE A
HALF INCH ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA...WITH AMOUNTS AND CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TIMING WISE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 18Z TOMORROW AND SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM...AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD
TO A NICE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WENT MAINLY ON THE
COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW MORNING...AS ALL MODELS HAVE
HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS UP IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER...WHERE INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. AFTER THAT...DID A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND MET TO CATCH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTS PROGRESSION
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN...BUT WE WILL GET YET
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL CANADIAN AIR. WILL LIKELY SEE
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE TO DRY TO SEE ANY SNOW/FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS GEORGIA SO
WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST. AFTER THAT ATTENTION TURNS TO A
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE IN SOME TIME IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
DEEPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THAT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE...SENDING A LOW ACROSS THE STATE WITH
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF QPF. 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION
AND IT APPEARS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON
A SOLUTION THAT WILL GIVE US SOME VERY BENEFICIAL RAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH TO BRING TAF SITES ABOUT A 12-HR PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AND IFR VSBY DURING THE DAY THU. CURRENT TAFS APPEAR TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING OF EVENTS. VFR TO START THE TAF CYCLE.
CIGS...LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS AL EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE WITH BKN060 CIGS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AL. SSE
LOW-LEVEL/BL WIND WILL INITIALLY ADVECT THIS MOISTURE TO OUR
WEST...BUT BETWEEN 06Z-10Z...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES SSW AND
INCREASES...SO EXPECT MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFT 06Z.
VSBY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF BR. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE MCN AND AHN...WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER
FOR THE MODIFYING AIR MASS TO REACH THOSE LOCATIONS...AND SOME
DECOUPLING MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. LACK OF DEEP LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN NO WORSE THAN MVFR VSBY IN RAIN
MID-DAY/EARLY AFTN THU. WX...VERY STABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH EVENT...SO ONLY EXPECTING -SHRA...AND NO TSRA. RAIN
WILL LARGELY BE FALLING FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS...GFS SHOWS
MARKED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL S WINDS DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIME
FRAME...NAM DOES NOT. RUC SIDES CLOSER TO NAM ON THIS ISSUE. IN
ADDITION...RUC/NAM SHOWS NOTICEABLE DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE AHN-MCN
AREA WITH CALM WINDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT 5KT WINDS
OVERNIGHT AT ATL. DIRECTION WILL HOVER NEAR 180...BUT SHOULD STAY ON
EAST SIDE OF 180 MOST OF THE NIGHT...THEN TRANSITION TO 190-200 BY
MID DAY ALONG WITH SHRA ACTIVITY...SHIFTING TO THE NW AFT 00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 32 59 36 53 29 / 5 30 40 5 10
ATLANTA 36 54 36 52 34 / 10 40 40 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 32 46 30 48 24 / 20 70 40 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 37 51 32 49 25 / 20 60 40 5 5
COLUMBUS 36 63 43 57 36 / 5 30 30 5 5
GAINESVILLE 34 52 35 52 32 / 10 50 50 5 10
MACON 31 64 43 57 33 / 5 20 30 10 5
ROME 39 51 34 50 26 / 20 70 30 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 31 55 34 53 26 / 5 40 40 5 5
VIDALIA 30 68 44 58 36 / 5 5 20 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
50/19
