000
FXUS64 KLUB 280526
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010
.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE DRAWN NWD FROM SOUTH TEXAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR MVFR CIGS
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...FAVORING KCDS OVER KLBB ATTM. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO FAVOR A SE DIRECTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE TWD THE FCST AREA WITH
ABUANDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF IT. WILL SEE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE IFR OR MVFR CIGS SPREAD NWD FROM SOUTH TEXAS
BUT LIKELY STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 12 KT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON DEC 27 2010/
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED SOUTH INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BE STALLING BY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF UPPER
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING EAST AHEAD OF WAVE AND THIS
MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES OVER WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
NAM/GFS ADVERTISE A DECENT RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS THIS NORTHWEST SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF ALREADY UNDERWAY. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
THAT WE COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK NAM/GFS MOISTURE RETURN RATE IS TOO
FAST AND HAVE SHOWN A SLOWER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
GRIDS. WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH TUESDAY/S HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY/S DUE MAINLY TO THICKER CLOUD COVER. JW
LONG TERM...
SHRTWV TROUGH ADVANCES INTO W TX WED NIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE. MAINTAINED PREVIOUS THINKING OF
FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY OFF THE CAPROCK. MODELS HAD BEEN
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR SE CORNER HOWEVER EXPECT BULK
OF PRECIP TO BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA IN BETTER WAA/ISENTROPIC
LIFT. DEEP SFC CYCLONE BEGINS TO FORM DURING THE DAY ACROSS ERN CO
WHICH WILL HELP BEGIN TO CRANK UP WIND MACHINE WED AFTN INTO THU.
RH VALUES WILL BE SLOW TO DROP INITIALLY BUT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NEAR THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTN WITH DEEP MIXING. EXPECT
STRONG WINDS LIKELY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY ON THU HOWEVER RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO STAY UP SOME WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH NRN NM AND CO.
STRONG JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT THU WITH ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW ORDER POPS
THEN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DRIVING ARCTIC AIR SOUTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ON FRI WITH ECMWF TAKING BULK OF COLD AIR EASTWARD. STILL
EXPECT SOME VERY DRY AIR TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CAPROCK NEW
YEARS DAY MORNING. ALL MED RANGE MODELS NOW CONSISTENT WITH DRY
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. WITH
DRY SURFACE AIR STILL EXPECT COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS.
FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT ON WED AFTER
VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE. MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL ADD TO THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU AS WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE HOWEVER RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 26 48 27 62 26 / 0 10 10 10 10
TULIA 26 47 32 63 29 / 0 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 26 51 33 63 32 / 0 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 27 55 33 64 32 / 0 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 26 54 36 64 36 / 0 10 10 0 10
DENVER CITY 29 57 36 65 34 / 0 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 27 57 36 65 33 / 0 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 28 52 38 61 36 / 0 10 10 10 10
SPUR 28 52 39 66 35 / 0 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 29 53 44 64 40 / 0 10 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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