000
FXUS61 KCLE 032311
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES ON THURSDAY...MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING INTO THE TOL
AREA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WERE NOT TOO MANY SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER RADARS WERE
STARTING TO SHOW MORE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH START WITH CHANCE CHANCE POPS FAR EAST THIS
EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS SHORTLY AFTER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT MODELS SHOWING LIMITED QPF AFTER IT MOVES
THROUGH AS DRY AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN QUICKLY. THEREFORE WONT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ...INCH OR LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEPT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE FAR EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT EXITS...THEN TRANSITION TO MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW TOMORROW AND IT TAKES UNTIL MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR 8H TEMPS TO DROP TO -10C PLUS NW FETCH MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER WILL CARRY SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE SNOWBELT BUT ONLY LOOKING FOR AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. LIMITING FACTORS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND NO STRONG SURFACE TROUGH
OR UPPER S/W. THESE SHOULD HELP LIMIT SNOW FALL AND WILL SHOW 1 TO
3 INCHES OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE
8H TEMPS AT -13C TO -15C IF ANY BANDS GET ESTABLISHED AND CAN
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR.
WINDS FURTHER BACK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD SEE AN END TO ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DROPPING ALBERTA CLIPPER SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
SUNDAY AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DROP 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -15 TO
-17C. AGAIN MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY MOVING LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON TUESDAY. BOTH MOVE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT
THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...AND WARMER THAN GFS. IF GFS IS RIGHT
ALL PRECIP WILL BE SNOW...FOR NOW WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO ON
TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
MOVES LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE
GFS MOVES LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THEN ALONG EAST COAST. IF THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT ENTIRE AREA WILL BE HIT WITH MORE SNOW...IF GFS
MAINLY THE NE OH/NW PA. HPC IS BUYING INTO THE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW
SO WILL REFLECT THAT IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS TAF SITES TONIGHT
SHIFTING SSW FLOW TO WEST. MVFR CIGS MAY DROP TO HIGH END IFR AROUND
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME IN SOME LOCATIONS HOWEVER VSBY`S SHOULD MORE
EASILY DROP TO IFR. 1 TO 2SM LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE RANGE FOR THE
VSBY`S TO FALL INTO IN THE LIGHT SNOW.
SOME RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TO END PRECIP
MOST PLACES ALTHOUGH A FEW SHSN MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT THU.
THE CIGS MOST OF AREA SHOULD LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR OR VFR DURING THE
DAY THU AND CONTINUE INTO THU EVE.
OUTLOOK...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SNOWBELT MOSTLY EAST OF
CLEVELAND.
EXPECT A BREAK FROM THE SNOW FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. MORE SNOW ON TAP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN UP ON THE LAKE FOR TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL PICK
UP THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
DROP BELOW GALES AS GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW AND WILL LIKELY RUN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON
THE EAST TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE WIND AND WAVES AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. NEXT
SYSTEM COMES DOWN FROM THE UPPER LAKES AND MIDWEST MOVING ACROSS
LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS AND WAVES ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN...THIS TIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS AGAIN FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH A CALMER LAKE.
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LEZ061-149-169.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>148-162>168.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...RANDEL
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN
