000
FXUS61 KGYX 031925
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
225 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE. THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE A GENERAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPR LVL AND SFC RIDGE SLIDE OUT TO SEA TNGT. A SW FLOW BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED BUT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS HOLD OFF THRU MUCH OF THE NGT...EXCEPT FOR AREA OF CLOUDS
NOW SKIMMING NE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT BUT COULD SEE QUITE VARIABLE MIN TEMP VALUES DUE TO
SOME PLACES SEEING SOME WIND AND SOME OF THE MORE NRN AND POSSIBLY
WRN ZONES SEEING PERIODS OF SOME CLOUDINESS. GENERALLY USED THE
GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A CD FNT PRESSES E ON THURSDAY...MOVING E OF THE FA LATE IN THE
DAY. THE UPR LVL FLOW IS SW...MORE PARALLEL TO THE FNT AND CAUSING
IT TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. PRCP WILL BE MOSTLY ALONG AND
IN A FAIRLY NARROW BUT SLOW MOVING BAND BEHIND THE FNT...FALLING
AS -RA EXCEPT -RA MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO -SN OVER THE NRN...
EXTREME WRN AND MT ZONES AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FNT.
BEST CHC OF PRCP OVER MORE NRN ZONES WITH POP DROPPING OFF
CONSIDERABLY OVER MORE SRN ZONES. PRCP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LGT
SIDE ACROSS THE FA. GENERALLY USED THE GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMY EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE THE EASTERN TROUGH
LIFTS OUT TO OUR EAST AND IS TEMPORARILY REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS SOLUTIONS POINT TO A RETURN OF A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH WITH
EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES
RUNNING AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
COLD UNDER WEAK RIDGING. A BIT MILDER ON SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE MIDWEST. ON SUNDAY...WE
HAVE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PASSING OFF WELL TO THE EAST WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE QPF REMAINS
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WOULDN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOWFALL ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH
EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE MIDWEST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU TNGT
AND MUCH OF THURSDAY. CLOUDS SPREAD W TO E LATE TNGT AND THURSDAY
IN ADVANCE OF A CD FNT. THE FNT PUSHES E OF THE FA LATE THURSDAY.
MOST PRCP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FNT...LATE IN THE DAY...WHEN MVFR
TO PSBL IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. ANY PRCP EXPECTED TO FALL AS
-RA UNTIL CD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT OVER NRN...MT AND
EXTREME WRN /INCLUDING THE LEB TAF SITE/ AREAS LATE IN THE DAY
CAUSING -RA TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO -SN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...SW WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP THRU THE
NGT INTO SCA CRITERIA AS THE SW PRES GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH MOVING OUT TO SEA AND THE CD FNT PRESSING E
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SCA CONDITIONS CONT THRU MUCH OF THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE FNT. FNT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY WITH
WINDS LETTING UP FIRST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO GALE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
