000
FXUS65 KSLC 032302
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
402 PM MST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
EVENING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO THE SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SPREADS INCREASING LIFT INTO
NORTHERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING
FROM ABOUT SLC NORTH. THIS BAND SHIFTS SOUTH THU MORNING THEN FALLS
APART IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE SPLITS AND SHEARS APART.
EXPECT PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
SUB ADVISORY BOTH VALLEYS AND MTS. AS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...DONT SEE VALLEY TEMPS GETTING TOO COLD AND MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOULD MELT ON PAVEMENT SURFACES AS IT FALLS...SPARING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
PRECIP MAKES IT TO ABOUT CENTRAL UT BEFORE THE SYSTEM FALLS APART
WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE DOWN SOUTH.
12Z EC HAS COME AROUND TO THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE ERN PAC OFF THE COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AND
THE NEW 18Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS. SO THIS WILL PREVENT THE
MON SHORT WAVE FROM DIGGING TOO FAR WEST AND PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTH...AND KEEPS THE PATTERN DRIER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE
ADJUSTED 4-7 DAY GRIDS TOWARDS THESE IDEAS.
&&
.AVIATION...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 03Z TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 7000 FEET AGL THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
CEILINGS MAY RISE ABOVE 7000 FEET AT TIMES THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WILENSKY/KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
