000
FXUS65 KVEF 272308
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
308 PM PST MON DEC 27 2010
.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A DRY PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT STORM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STORM WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN TO THE VALLEYS AND
DESERTS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A
RISK OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW FLURRIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWED OUR AREA IN BETWEEN CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONE BAND OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA EXITING MOHAVE COUNTY...AND THE FIRST
TENDRILS OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SPILLING INTO THE
NORTHWEST ZONES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THE NEXT STORM
ASIDE FROM SLIGHT SLOWING TRENDS IN THE MODELS. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...LEFT THE WINTER STORM WATCHES IN PLACE.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET IN THE SIERRA AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE LINCOLN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN THE SIERRA...WHERE GUSTS
COULD REACH 70 MPH NEAR THE CREST. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...AND THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE THAT RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SNOW
DOWN TO THE DESERT FLOOR BEFORE ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL LIKELY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRYING OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BETWEEN 00Z/06Z SATURDAY...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-30KTS AROUND 10K FEET.
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND EVENTUALLY DROPPING IT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ONLY SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH SHOWS THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN INYO
COUNTY. DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AND
EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THE ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY WITH CIGS REMAINING AOA 15K
FEET. SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-8KTS BETWEEN 04Z-14Z TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT WITH CIGS REMAINING AOA 15K FEET. SOME LOWER CIGS EXPECTED
TUESDAY OVER INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NVZ015-018-019.
AZ...NONE.
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ519-521.
&&
$$
MORGAN/GORELOW
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
