000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032209
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
305 PM MST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND PERSIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. A
TROUGH ALOFT THIS THIS FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY WITH
SOME CLOUDS BUT VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER TROUGH NOW WELL
THROUGH THE AREA AND ATTENDANT UPPER LOW JUST NOW ENTERING THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO PARTS OF EAST AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DOWN
TO THE SAC MOUNTAINS AND JUST EAST OF GUADALUPE PASS. FRONT APPEARS TO
HANG UP ON THE TERRAIN AND MODELS NEVER SHOW A GOOD PUSH WESTWARD WITH
IT. HAVING SAID THAT...STILL LOOKS LIKE COLD ADVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH COOLED MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
SHARP POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DROPS DOWN TO AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CUT OFF LOW FORMING WELL WEST OF THE BAJA. EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
IN A SHEAR/DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA
DOWN TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY
BEFORE GETTING FLUSHED OUT TO THE EAST AS NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN A PROBLEM. PREVIOUS GFS RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHEAR ZONE FURTHER
NORTH AND HENCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SHOWERS INFLUENCING THE AREA.
ECMWF STILL SHOWS THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT BUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN
WOULDN`T BE UNTIL JUST OUT OF FORECAST PERIOD WHEN UPPER LOW BEGINS
LIFTING OUT OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. LEFT SOME TOKEN POPS IN THE
GRIDS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD IN CASE LATER MODELS SHOW CHANGE
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 04/0000Z-05/0000Z...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS BANKED UP AGAINST THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY SHIFT INTO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AFTER DARK AT KELP...BUT WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A RELATIVELY WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED AS FAR WEST AS THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. THIS
FRONT IS LIKELY TOO SHALLOW TO MAKE IT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
WINDS MAY BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS LOWLAND AREAS OF FAR WEST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FAIRLY
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 38 63 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 33 59 32 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 63 37 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 31 61 31 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 41 21 40 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 59 33 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 56 30 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 33 62 35 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 62 35 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/HARDIMAN
