000
FXUS64 KCRP 032332 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
532 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...COLD FRONT NEAR AN AUSTIN TO DEL RIO LINE AT 23Z WAS
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
VCT AND LRD WILL BE AROUND 04Z AND AT CORPUS CHRISTI AROUND 05Z.
THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE MID-COAST REGION FROM ROCKPORT TO VICTORIA EASTWARD
FROM NOW UNTIL 06Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS A
RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE CLIPPED BY
THE TAIL END OF CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S. COOL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE
TOO HIGH.
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...WINDS OVER THE BAYS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA CRITERION AROUND SUNSET...
THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT SCA TO EXPIRE FOR THE BAYS. WINDS
OVER THE GULF WATERS SHOULD ONLY SUBSIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
TONIGHT TO BELOW SCA CRITERION BETWEEN 9PM CST AND 12AM CST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
9-10 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OFFSHORE SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES IN ITS WAKE AND CONTINUING THOUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A PERSISTENT
LONGWAVE RDG AXIS WL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. SVRL S/WVS WL PUSH THROUGH THIS RDG AXIS AS THEY MOVE IN FROM
THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MOST OF THESE WL WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH SEWD FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH RESULTANT CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PCPN...THERE WL BE VERY LITTLE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE PD. THE LAST
SUCH S/WV TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ON TUE WL BE A BIT
STRONGER BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE WL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THUS WL MAINTAIN SLIM POPS THROUGH THE PD.
A COOL START TO THE FCST IS EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP EXPECTED
THROUGH MON. A COLD FNT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH ON TUE.
THE GFS HAS GOTTEN STRONGER WITH THIS FNT WHILE THE ECMWF SOLN HAS
GOTTEN WEAKER. WL BE CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND NOT GO AS COLD BEHIND
THIS NEXT FNT AS THE GFS SUGGESTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 63 43 58 49 / 10 10 10 30 20
VICTORIA 46 59 36 57 40 / 30 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 50 65 44 59 47 / 0 0 10 20 10
ALICE 48 65 39 57 46 / 10 0 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 51 61 46 60 52 / 20 10 10 20 10
COTULLA 44 65 39 58 42 / 0 0 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 48 64 44 58 47 / 10 10 10 30 20
NAVY CORPUS 53 61 50 61 53 / 10 10 10 30 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
