000
FXUS63 KIND 071047
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
547 AM EST WED JAN 7 2009
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS
LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY AN MVFR PD PER THE MODEL TIME SECS AND LOW LVL RH
PROGS...HOWEVER...THERE WERE VFR CIGS BEHIND A SFC TROF CURRENTLY
ACRS NWRN IL THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH AFTER 16Z. SO...WL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT LGT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES THROUGH THIS EVE AHEAD OF AN APRCHG UPR TROF. BUFKIT AND
UPSTREA OBS FAVOR W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS OR BETTER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH. WINDS TO DROP OFF SOME TNGT AS SFC LOW PRES
SYS LIFTS NE TO NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
LARGE H5 TROF WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES COULD BE SEEN ON WV SAT WITHIN
THE LONG WAVE.
TODAY...SOME SEEDER/FEEDER ENHANCED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK
TO BE THE RULE TODAY AS A LARGE H5 TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES BUT SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD ALSO TAKE PLACE. TEMPS FOR TODAY WONT BE TOO MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE H5 TROF WILL KEEP TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. MOS
NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE THREE HOURLY TEMPS FOR
HIGHS.
TONIGHT...AS THE TROF MOVES EAST...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE SREF ALL SHOW A STRONGER SWV DROPPING SOUTH FROM MANITOBA
TONIGHT. THIS IS ALREADY VISIBLE ON WV AND THE AFOREMENTIONED THREE
MODELS ALL HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON IT. SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING WAS
SHOWN ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS THE WAVE PASSES. WILL HANG ON TO SOME
POPS TONIGHT AS THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN COLD IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
THURSDAY...A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PARADE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL HELP
KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD ON THURS AS
THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND WEDNESDAYS TROF WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY TRENDING WARMER ON FRIDAY
NIGHT SO HAVE RAISED TEMPS AND SWITCHED PTYPE TO ALL RAIN ON FRI
NITE/SAT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY AND DID NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SALLY
AVIATION...MK
