000
FXUS63 KSGF 032342
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE A COUPLE AREAS OF PRECIP OVER AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44 IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO...WITHIN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALONG THE 300K SURFACE. ASOS OBS VERIFY THAT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S IN THIS AREA.
TO OUR NORTHWEST ANOTHER BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS DEVELOPING
FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ROUGHLY WITHIN A
GRADIENT OF NEGATIVE EPV.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WILL BE HANGING ON TO LIGHT SNOW FOR THE EVENING AS THE BAND OF
SNOW TO OUR NORTHWEST SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE QUICK EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FROM
MID EVENING ON...SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AND MOST OF
THE PRECIP ENDING BY MIDNIGHT OR EARLIER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL BRING COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WE STILL HAVE SOME
CONCERNS ABOUT FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE TOO DRY TO CARRY PRECIP IN THE ZONES AT THIS TIME.
TERRY
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A
PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIG OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES.
EACH WAVE WILL AT LEAST BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REFLECT A COLD FRONT TO
THE SURFACE. THE FIRST SUCH WAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
UP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT FOR THE NEXT BOUT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE HAVING SERIOUS ISSUES
WITH THE PHASING OF ENERGY ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
SPECIFICALLY...THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THIS FEATURE CAN BECOME SOMEWHAT PHASED (OR
PICKED UP) BY THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WE WILL SEE MUCH BETTER
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A BETTER AND MORE EXTENDED SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION. THIS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW DAYS OF NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF NO KIND OF PHASING CAN
OCCUR...WE ARE LIKELY JUST LOOKING AT ANOTHER FRONT WITH A QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 0000 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A NARROW BAND OF VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MO...AND I HAVE LEFT A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER CEILINGS
EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
