000
FXUS63 KBIS 032038
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
240 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM
WILLISTON THROUGH BISMARCK TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER LOOK
REASONABLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. I EXPECT COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LITTLE WARMER ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PATTERN CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN UNSETTLED AND OVERALL COLD REGIME
WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PICTURE WITH THE
FIRST CLIPPER EVENT BRINGING LIGHT SNOW VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH BRISK AND MUCH COLDER AIR
AGAIN. COULD SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF BREAK MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENT
TUESDAY AFT/EVE WITH COLDER AIR AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COMING IN
WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY A MVFR CEILING CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH IFR VISIBLITIES OF 1 TO AROUND 3 MILES IN LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH 06Z THU. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO ADD
TO THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 06Z WITH MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z
THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MORE THAN MVFR CEILINGS. &&
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WAA/KS
