000
FXUS64 KMEG 061134
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES OVER POINSETT AND CROSS COUNTIES IN EAST ARKANSAS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. WITH PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING INTO THESE
TWO COUNTIES HAVE ADDED THEM TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ARS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO AREAS
JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY AREAS THAT SEEING
PRECIPITATION ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO LITTLE IF ANY FREEZING RAIN IS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. MOST AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE ICE STORM
WARNING ARE EITHER ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS TIME OR WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE TIME RAIN REACHES THEM. HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE
ICE STORM WARNING. ALSO HAVE LET WINTER WEATHER EXPIRE FOR SOME
COUNTIES IN WEST TENNESSEE AND EAST ARKANSAS. HAVE KEPT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL UNTIL 15Z. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE LAST
TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND SOME VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. IN ADDITION TO THE
WINTER WEATHER THREAT...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONE. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED AND DRIER AIR
SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE MUCH COLDER AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
REACH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
ARS
AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WET PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY WITH IFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. PTYPE WILL BE A PROBLEM AT KJBR AND WILL GO WITH
FZRA THROUGH 16Z. AT THAT POINT TEMP SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT RAIN THAT WILL START TAPERING OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WIND FIELDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG SEEM PROBABLE. ALSO MAY SEE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
AS MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW WENT WITH MVFR VSBYS AND
MVFR CIGS FOR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER 00Z.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 45 37 49 39 / 90 60 10 0
MKL 45 34 45 34 / 90 80 20 10
JBR 40 32 47 35 / 70 40 10 0
TUP 51 40 49 36 / 100 90 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-
COAHOMA-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
