000
FXUS65 KREV 032219
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
219 PM PST WED DEC 3 2008
.SHORT TERM...
RIDGE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN PLAYER NEXT 3 DAYS.
WEAK UPPER LOW OFF COAST IS DROPPING SOUTH ON EAST SIDE OF RIDGE
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING SE INTO PACNW. LOW OFF THE COAST
WILL REMAIN TOO FAR WEST...WITH ONLY IMPACT FROM PACNW SHORT WAVE
TO PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THU MORNING.
EXPECT SOME COOLING ALONG WITH LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
AS RIDGE NUDGES EAST AGAIN FRI-SAT...TEMPS WILL WARM ALOFT AGAIN
WITH MTNS SEEING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AGAIN. VALLEYS EAST OF
THE SIERRA WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH LIGHT EAST SFC GRADIENT
AND AN EVEN STRONGER INVERSION FOR THE WEEKEND. AIR QUALITY IN
SOME LOWER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY RENO-CARSON CITY AREAS...MAY BE AN
ISSUE FOR THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH CUT OFF LOW LOCATED OFF THE SRN
CA COAST...NEAR 30N 130W BY SUNDAY. THE GFS...EURO...CANADIAN AND
ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST WITH NO
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA AND KEEP ANY SHORT WAVES NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A COUPLE DEGREES OF
COOLING TO THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
ALL AREAS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE CUT OFF LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST AND HINTS AT
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND PUSHES SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO NRN AREAS AGAIN. THE GFS DRIFTS THE CUT OFF LOW
WELL WEST OF THE COAST BY MONDAY AND DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS NEXT
SHORT WAVE...BUT BUILDS THE RIDGE STRONGER ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
CANADIAN IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND BUILDS THE RIDGE ALONG THE
COAST...BUT IS JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION...THEREFORE THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GMCGUIRE
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE IMPACT RESIDING AT THE UPPER ELEVATIONS/RIDGES WHERE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. LIGHT WINDS
AT TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
7-12 KTS DEVELOPING THURSDAY BEHIND FRONT. GMCGUIRE
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
