000
FXUS63 KGID 032337
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
537 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD BRING AREAS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW TO BOTH NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF NEBRASKA ON
THURSDAY...BUT KGRI LOOKS TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE IN
BETWEEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008/
SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH
POSITIONED FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
UPSTREAM A WEAK RIDGE IS SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST. BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS...A HEALTHY LOOKING CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER ALBERTA IS PUSHING
QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH WITH PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA REVEALING A
120KT UPPER JET STREAK JUST AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BUT BEHIND THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. QUICK EXAMINATION OF REGIONAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO MID MS RIVER VALLEY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGED INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
AS THE AREA HEADS INTO THE EVENING...SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH BUT AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE
HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO EASE QUICKLY BELOW 10 KNOTS BY SUNSET. ALTHOUGH A MID
DECK OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
INTO THE EVENING...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL RIDE INTO THE REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. INITIALLY THIS WILL ONLY
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE LOWER 5 TO 8 KFT OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. GIVEN THIS
SETUP...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING THEN FLAT
LINE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 14 TO 18 DEGREE
RANGE. THE PATTERN WILL THEN TURN SLIGHTLY MORE INTERESTING THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 120KT UPPER
JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DIRECT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK PRODUCING A MODEST BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 285K THETA LAYER...WILL LIFT MOISTURE
INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOST OF THURSDAY INTO MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND PRECIP RATES
COMING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL STAY LIGHT...BUT SCATTERED
FLURRIES REMAIN A POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF A LEXINGTON TO SUPERIOR LINE
BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO DROP INTO A -8C TO -14C RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NEAR ORD...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR BELOIT AND PHILLIPSBURG.
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...KEPT DRY
FORECAST GOING. EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT TO HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE LATEST SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO TREK EAST AND
A RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE WEST COAST. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY/INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL AND QUICK MOVING PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIP REMAINING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ON FRIDAY...BUT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS
BACK TO THE CWA. THIS DOES AID IN A SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 40. OVERNIGHT
ON FRIDAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING...HAVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES/NO SYSTEMS OF NOTE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND DOMINATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY FOR OUR CWA THE PATH OF THIS HIGH...AND
THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT...IS A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN THE
ONE ON THURS/FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW WEEKEND HIGHS TO BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. SATURDAY IS ON THE COOLER SIDE...WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH HIGHS NEAR 40 NORTH/MID 40S SOUTH. SUNDAY IS A TOUCH
WARMER AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH/NEAR 50 SOUTH.
MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST COMES DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS TO IMPACT THE CWA
LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING SOME TO
AGREE WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH. KEPT SLGT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN FOR
THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH...BUT DID ADJUST THE TIMING A BIT. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
QUICK SHOT AT SNOW/SOME RAIN AS IT PASSES THROUGH. ANOTHER SFC COLD
FRONT GETS SHOVED THROUGH...AND WITH DIFFS BETWEEN MODELS...STAYED
CLOSE TO HPC FOR TIMING. INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...KEPT FORECAST
DRY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILT IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS FAR AS EARLY WEEK
TEMPERATURES GO...COLD FRONT ON MONDAY DOES USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER...DROPPING HIGHS BY TUESDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
NORTH/LOWER 40S SOUTH...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND ON WED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
