000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032001
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER QUIET MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP FOR TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
NOT GETTING QUITE AS LOW AS PREV NIGHT...BUT STILL VERY CHILLY IN
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 1028MB SFC HIGH PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL SE STATES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THU WILL ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 50S OVR NRN COUNTIES TO AROUND 60 OVR
SRN VA/NE NC. CI SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE FA EARLY
THU...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID TO LOW
LVL CLDS WILL BEGIN ARRIVING BY THU EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
GFS NOW DEPICTING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MSTR WITH THIS
FRONT...WHILE THE EURO AND NAM STILL SHWOING THE FRONT BASICALLY
WASHING OUT AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS THU AFTN. HV LEFT IN LOW CHC TO
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THU AFTN/EVENING...AND KEPT PRECIP TYPE -RA AT
THIS POINT...THOUGH GFS BFR SOUNDINGS OVR THE NRN I-95 CORRIDOR
ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. (AND POSSIBLY A
DUSTING OF SN FOR MD ERN SHORE...?) SINCE GFS IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE INCREASE IN MSTR WITH THIS FRONT
ANYWAY...AND TEMPS LOOK VERY BORDERLINE FOR ANY QUESTIONABLE
WINTRY MIX...HAVE LEFT IN -RA ATTM.
FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVR NC FRI MORN-AFTN. HV ADDED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS TO NE NC AS A S/WV RIDES NE ALONG THIS BNDRY
THRU THE DAY FRI...POSSIBLY BRINGING A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN TO THIS AREA THAN ORIGINALLY DEPICTED BY THE MDLS. BNDRY FINALLY
SLIPS OFFSHORE EARLY SAT AND THUS ENDING ANY PRECIP CHC`S DOWN HERE.
AFTER A WARM START TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON THU...TEMPS COOL
SIGNIFICATNLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY LOOK FOR A
RETURN TO COOLER HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 40S WITH LOWS MID 20-30S
FRI NIGHT. FOR HIGH TEMPS ON SAT NOT MUCH OF AN IMPROVEMTN OVR
FRI...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S OVR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTM PROGGED TO EJECT QUICKLY SE IN ERN TROF SAT NITE.
THE PROJECTED TRACK OF SYSTM (N OF MASON-DIXON LINE) WUD NOT NRMLLY
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SGNFCNT PCPN ACROSS FA. HOWEVER...LTST
GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDCT ENUF MSTR ALONG TRAILING TROF TO PRODUCE A SVRL
HR PRD OF PCPN ACROSS RGN. THUS...HAVE INCRSD POPS SAT NITE INTO CHC
CAT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE N AND LOWEST ACROSS THE S. NXT
CONCERN IS P-TYPE AS LL THNCKNS SPRT A SNOW OR RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO
ACROSS THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. LOWS IN THE U20S N TO M30S SERN CST.
LINGERING SNOW SHWRS ACROSS LWR MD ERN SHORE SUN AM B4 ANTHR COLD
PRD XPCTD SUN AFTRN THRU TUE AS ANTHR IN A SERIES OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO RGN. BLO NRML TMPS CONT WITH HIGHS SUN AND MON IN
THE 40S AND LOWS 20-30 (UPR TEENS IN NRMLY COLD SPOTS).
RETURN FLOW RETURNS TUE AS H5 RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. H85 TMPS RISE TO
SPRT READINGS TO BTWN 50-55. NXT SYSTM EJECTS NE FROM GULF STATES
LATE TUE THEN MOVES NE ALONG APPLACH MTS. MSTR WITH THIS SYSTM
PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE N AND OVRSPRD RGN BY MID WEEK. APPEARS THAT
ENUF WRM AIR IS DRAWN N TO KEEP THIS EVENT ALL LIQUID ATTM. LOWS TUE
NITE 40-45 AND HIGHS WED U40S-L50S. TRAILING CDFRNT MOVES OFFSHORE
BY THU NITE ALLOWING ANTHR COLD AIRMASS TO BUILD IN BY NXT FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AND THU AS HIGH PRES OVER
THE AREA GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THU
AND MOVE THRU THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. S-SW WNDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT PSBL. MOISTURE
WITH THE FRONT LOOKS SCARCE AND PRECIP IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDS
WILL BUILD BACK IN ON FRI THRU SAT...WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING BY SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE WTRS FOR LATER TNGT THRU
THU AFTN...DUE TO INCRSNG SSW WNDS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRNT.
FRNT THEN PUSHES THRU WTRS THU EVENG INTO THU NGT. SCA CONDS LIKELY
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRNT ALL AREAS FRI DUE TO N WNDS AND COOL AIR
ADVECTION. CALMER CONDS FOR LATER FRI NGT THRU THE FIRST PART OF
SAT...AS WEAK SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS THE AREA. ANOTHER FRNTL BNDRY
SWINGS ACRS THE REGION LATER SAT NGT INTO ERLY SUN...FOLLOWED BY HI
PRES BLDG INTO/OVR THE AREA FOR LATER SUN THRU MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...TMG
