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FXUS63 KUNR 061019
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
320 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...10Z SFC MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AREA RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RETURNS ARE MOSTLY VIGRA DUE TO THE
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL CONTINUE THE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN NERN WY/NRN BLK HLS AND NWRN SD. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING BEST CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...MAINLY IN THE 30S.
TONIGHT THRU WED...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA
IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...CREATING A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER NERN WY
THE NRN BLK HLS AND NWRN SD. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL IN THE
NRN BLACK HILLS...MOSTLY LIKELY FROM TERRY PEAK TO O`NEIL PASS AND
OVER BUTTE AND HARDING COUNTIES IN NWRN SD. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE MAY BE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM AIR OVERRIDES THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
EXTENDED...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AS WELL. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PCPN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP DRY FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HILLS AS SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KGCC BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
