000
FXUS64 KHGX 032352
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
552 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS QUITE STRONG BUT VEERING MORE TO THE
SW WITH THE APPROACH OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN WARM ADVECTION MOIST AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF I-45 AS WELL. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
TYLER TO AUSTIN AND MOVING AROUND 20-25KTS TO THE S. BASICALLY
THIS PUTS THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SE TX FROM NOW THROUGH 06Z
WHERE IS SHOULD REACH THE COAST. FRONT SHOULD REACH CLL WITH IN
AN HOUR AND UTS SHORTLY AFTER THAT. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH FOR THE HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS AROUND 04Z. TAFS WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONVECTION ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
THAT HIGH GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALONG THE FRONT CURRENTLY.
THAT COULD CHANGE GIVEN MORE DEVELOPMENT IN MADISON CO. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FROM 06Z TO 09Z WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SE TX AFTER THAT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT FIRST AND THEN TAPER OFF. WINDS TOMORROW
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS WITH NO OTHER
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008/
DISCUSSION...
AT 19Z...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A PARIS TO BROWNWOOD TO SAN
ANGELO LINE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
TONIGHT. CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING BRINGS THE BOUNDARY TO A CROCKETT
TO COLUMBUS LINE BY 9 PM...LUFKIN TO BAY CITY BY MIDNIGHT AND
CROSSING THE COAST BY 1 AM. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND BACK BUILD SOUTHWEST TO COVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. RAIN
SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY A 90 KNOT RIGHT REAR QUAD. THE RAIN SHOULD END
QUICKLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT IT APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TONIGHT AND
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FAIRLY STRONG. THE TROUGH...FRONT AND RRQ
COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS
(PROBABLY LARGE HAIL) BUT THINK SEVERE THREAT IS TOO MINIMAL TO
MENTION IN TH ZONES. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONG
AND AFTER TODAY`S MILD TEMPERATURES...IT`LL FEEL QUITE COLD BY EARLY
THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THU/FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD WILL BLOCK THE SUN MAKING IT FEEL
COLDER. A SLOW WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
COLDER TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AM
EXPECTING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WEAKEN A BIT BEFORE RETURNING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA NO LATER THAN SURISE...IF NOT
BEFORE. SEAS WILL BE A CHALLENGE...FORECAST AND ACTUAL. THE
NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD SEE A REDUCTION IN THE WAVE HEIGHTS AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BECAUSE OF THE SHORT FETCH. OFFSHORE...THE
SEA HEIGHTS MAY SUBSIDE A BIT THURSDAY AS OPPOSED TO THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL EXPECT BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
THE MODELS NEXT BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST NEXT
TUESDAY...JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 41 59 33 54 36 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 44 58 35 58 37 / 70 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 52 59 44 57 49 / 60 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...39
