000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261111
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF
THE STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FRONT WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DROP THE SNOW LEVEL BELOW 4000
FEET BY LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY SATURDAY...A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLOW DAYTIME WARMING TREND FROM
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FLAGSTAFF
AREA AND IS NOW LOCATED FROM GILA COUNTY TO THE WINDOW ROCK AREA.
WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG...WITH
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH COMMON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THROUGH
NOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. WE WILL
KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS IS FOR NOW...MORE ON THIS
BELOW.
THE MAIN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA LATER
TODAY. STRONG AND DEEP DIV-Q FORCING ALONG WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-35C AT 500 MB) WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE MAIN LOW. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS TIME. THESE WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES...TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS REASON...THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE FLAGSTAFF...
GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU AREAS WILL REMAIN. IF LATER MODEL
DATA APPEARS TO HAVE LESS MOISTURE IN THIS AREA...THESE WARNINGS
WILL NEED TO BE DROPPED.
THIS STORM IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING A BUSY TRAVEL
PERIOD. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LEAD
TO NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS ALIKE ARE URGED TO USE
EXTREME CAUTION.
COLD CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ON SATURDAY WITH VERY COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES. A DRY AND WARMER WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLOW DAYTIME WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A WINTER STORM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW) AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTH AND EASTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PHOENIX-WINSLOW-WINDOW ROCK
UNTIL AROUND 18Z. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM FROM 12-18Z...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
AGAIN AFTER 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 KT FROM
KPAN-KINW-KFMN EASTWARD UNTIL 18Z....TURNING WEST AND DECREASING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AZZ004-006-007-015-016-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ011-
039.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ017.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR AZZ005 ABOVE 5000 FEET.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...........JJ
AVIATION.........DJO
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.
