000
FXUS61 KCLE 060946
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
446 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE TODAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OHIO TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM ADVECTION HAS BEGUN BUT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO BEGIN
TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE. LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND MOVE NORTHWARD. DOESNT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT
THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL AMOUNT TO MORE THAN
1 INCH...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING BEING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PA AND MAYBE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
AREAS OF OHIO. AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS ABOVE THE SURFACE THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANGE FROM LIGHT SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
CWA AS THE SNOW CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN. DEFINITELY STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WARM WE CAN GET THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REGION STRUGGLES TO REACH THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY EAST.
AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS OHIO TONIGHT...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF CLEVELAND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH WARM
AIR PULLED NORTHWARD FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN. KEPT AN ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NW PA OVERNIGHT SINCE THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF PROLONGED TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING.
WEST OF THE LOW THE LIFT DOESNT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO HAVE
MENTIONED FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES. THE
LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO TOMORROW WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. AS THE FRONT PASSES THERE SHOULD BE A CHANGE
TO SNOW. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW BELT WILL THEN HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
CUTTING OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. MORE SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
MODELS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GFS FASTEST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW
WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH. BY 12Z SATURDAY ECMWF
HAS LOW OVER NRN INDIANA...WHILE GFS HAS THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON AND
THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE ECMWF.
DID SPEED UP TIMING AND BRING IN PRECIP WRN OH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY SATURDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. ECMWF DROPS 850 TEMPS TO
-12C WHILE LATEST GFS MUCH COLDER WITH 850 TEMPS PLUNGING TO -20C
OVER THE LAKE. MODELS AGREE MOVING ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER LAKES SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS JUST A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE. FOR MONDAY LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. JUST WENT CHC POPS AS ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS
AND ENSEMBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BUT
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. I AM
ANTICIPATING SOME PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE BEING A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND I WILL GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE MORE FREEZING RAIN TO TOLEDO AND FINDLAY TERMINALS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL TAKE PLACE ALOFT AND QUICKLY SET UP THE AREA FOR THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION. I ANTICIPATE ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL RAIN TOMORROW
EVENING FROM CLEVELAND AND MANSFIELD EAST. LOW TRACK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY CUT PRECIPITATION OFF AT CLEVELAND AND
MANSFIELD FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...LAKE EFFECT WILL SET UP EAST OF CLEVELAND WEDNESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS
ROTATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR VFR FRIDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO AN EASTERLY FLOW
LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND APPROACH GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE
LAKE. GFS MOS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER THAN THE NAM OR THE ECMWF
WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
THE MODELS INDICATE A LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT AGAIN SHOW DIFFERING TRACKS FOR
THE LOW SO FOR NOW EXPECT A GENERAL SW OR S FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM TURNING WEST AND INCREASING TO GALE OR NEAR GALE FORCE ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ012>014-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR OHZ027>032-036>038-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR OHZ020>022-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR OHZ023.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...DJB
