000
FXUS65 KABQ 032154 CCA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
201 PM MST WED DEC 3 2008
CORRECTED TO MENTION IFR CIGS TO THE AVIATION SECTION.
.DISCUSSION...
FOCUS IN SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES...AND EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION THU AND THU NIGHT. EXTENDED FORECAST TO HINGE ON
STORM NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND WHETHER IT EVENTUALLY
COMES INLAND OR STAYS WELL OFF BAJA CA.
UPPER LOW OVER FAR SE NM AND MOVING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE STATE. A FEW
ECHOES REMAIN ALONG THE NM AND TX BORDER...BUT ARE DWINDLING RAPIDLY.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. WILL ADD MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG AS WELL TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH NM THU WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
CHILLY AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING
OVER THE E...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE W.
A FEW SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SANGRES AND THE FAR NE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN EXPAND S THU NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME
ON FRI AREA WIDE...THEN WARM NOTICEABLY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY
IN THE E WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP.
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING AWAY FROM HAVING A CLOSED LOW MOVE INLAND
OVER BAJA CA EARLY NEXT WEEK. EUROPEAN WAS THE MOST CONSISTENT ON
SUCH A SCENARIO...BUT NOW IT IS EVEN KEEPING THE STORM OFFSHORE
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL TRIM POPS SOME IN THE SUN NIGHT
AND MON TIME PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
IMPACT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. IT
LOOKS LIKE AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE E MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO FOLLOW. CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG A LINE FROM LAS VEGAS TO CORONA MAY LINGER AND
POSSIBLY EXPAND TO RATON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO DEVELOP...LOCALLY VLIFR IN NATURE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS GRADUALLY WANING BY SUNSET
THIS EVENING.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. DPORTER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEPART THE SE
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOTABLY COLDER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...WITH HARD FREEZES EXPECTED STATEWIDE. RECOVERIES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MODERATE IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EXCELLENT WITHIN
THE NE PLAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
STATE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AS
WELL AS THE NE PLAINS ALONG THE CO BORDER. ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF
COLDER AIR WILL IMPACT THE ERN PLAINS...KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE
NE PLAINS TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SW LOWLANDS. LIGHT CANYON WINDS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG THE CENTRAL MTS.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LAND
OF ENCHANTMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS/20S STATEWIDE BENEATH LIGHT NW FLOW. THEREAFTER...MODELS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DETERMINING THE UPR LEVEL PATTERN...BUT
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 25 49 25 50 / 0 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 16 52 17 51 / 0 0 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 14 53 17 52 / 0 0 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 26 62 28 63 / 0 0 5 0
CHAMA........................... 9 44 7 44 / 0 0 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 21 46 20 49 / 0 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 8 38 9 40 / 0 10 10 0
TAOS............................ 15 47 14 46 / 0 5 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 23 48 19 50 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 48 22 50 / 0 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 18 52 19 53 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 32 53 30 53 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 25 54 25 56 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 52 29 53 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 26 53 27 57 / 0 0 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 23 59 27 58 / 0 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 24 47 24 50 / 0 0 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 16 51 19 52 / 0 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 27 56 24 55 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 24 51 27 50 / 0 0 5 0
RATON........................... 17 39 14 45 / 0 10 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 22 41 18 48 / 0 0 10 0
ROY............................. 22 38 18 45 / 0 0 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 18 37 18 45 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 23 47 22 54 / 0 0 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 22 45 19 50 / 0 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 21 48 22 54 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 24 45 23 51 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 20 46 22 50 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 29 51 26 54 / 0 0 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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