000
FXUS64 KOUN 032055
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH TIME THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL SEEING
SEVERAL LOCALES HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIAAT 230PM... BUT WITH
CONTINUED DECREASE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO LET THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 4PM. SFC GRADIENT RELAXES SLOWLY ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THAT
SPEEDS WILL STAY AT MODERATE LEVELS... WITH CONTINUED GUSTS...
WELL INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY S AND E ZONES.
WINDS MOST LIKELY TO DROP OFF TO L/V LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR NW.
TEMPS COULD PLUMMET GIVEN PROJECTED SFC DEWPOINTS... ESPECIALLY AT
KGAG WHERE WE HAVE SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT EVEN THE LOWEST OF THE
GUIDANCE MINS. WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THROUGH THU AND HANGING TOUGH THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY... WE
HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD OR EVEN LOWER THAN THE LOWER GUIDANCE
TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. LIMITED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE
TYPICAL DURING THESE EARLY PERIODS OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SOME
WARMUP POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY... BUT EVEN THAT LIKELY TO BE THWARTED
BY SOME DEGREE BY A GLANCING BLOW FROM ANOTHER ARCTIC
REINFORCEMENT.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND... PREVAILING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OF LONG-
FETCH WNW FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS SUGGESTS COOL AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT
WEEK. POPS WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING FOR AROUND MON-TUE WERE BASED
INITIALLY ON EJECTION OF A CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO FORM BY THIS
WEEK`S END OFF THE CA COAST. MODELS LATELY HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD STRANDING THIS LOW OVER THE PACIFIC OR EVEN RETROGRADING IT
AROUND THE OTHER SIDE OF THE HIGHER-LATITUDE W COAST RIDGE. ECMWF
HAS BEEN AMONG THE LAST TO KICK IT E NEXT WEEK... BUT THE 12Z RUN
HAS COME AROUND TO THE OTHERS AND NOW SHOWS IT AS A NON-FACTOR
HERE AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 7. THIS SOLUTION... WITH ABSENCE OF A
PERSISTENT SPLIT AND ATTENDANT SOUTHERN BRANCH... LEAVES US
DEPENDENT ON THE WNW FLOW AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH FOR ANY PRECIP
CHANCES... AND THOSE CHANCES TYPICALLY ARE SLIM IN THIS PATTERN.
WITH MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS INDICATING A FAIRLY ROBUST AND
DEEPENING WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA AROUND MONDAY... WE WILL KEEP
SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST. FURTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS INTRUSIONS WILL BE INEVITIBLE
IN THIS PATTERN... WITH CURRENT TIMING INDICATING ONE SUCH
REINFORCEMENT AROUND NEXT MONDAY AND ANOTHER JUST BEYOND DAY7/WED.
BEYOND DAY 7... THICKNESS IN THE COLDEST POOL OF POLAR AIR HAS BEEN
IN THE LOW 470S OVER SIBERIA... IMPRESSIVE EVEN BY SIBERIAN
STANDARDS. GENERAL TRENDS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE TO SHIFT THE
COLDEST AIR MORE TOWARD THE N POLE AND EVENTUALLY TO THIS SIDE OF
IT IN 10 DAYS... WHILE MAINTAINING AN EVER-PRESENT POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY OVER THE N ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN N AMERICA. CPC IS LEANING TOWARD RETROGRESSION OF
THE EASTERN TROF MORE TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SW CONUS DURING THE 6-10
AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS... WHICH SHOULD TELECONNECT TO CONTINUED
RIDGING FROM THE E PACIFIC N TOWARD ALASKA. WITH POLAR AIR
CONTINUING TO BUILD UP N... STAGE REMAINS SET TO CAUSE POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD WINTER-TYPE WX TROUBLE IN THE MID-LATE
DEC TIME FRAME... FROM EITHER A BIG-TIME ARCTIC INVASION AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS. FIGURING OUT THE DETAILS WILL REMAIN AN
EXERCISE IN FUTILITY AS LONG AS THE MED-RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH CONTINUITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 23 41 21 45 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 23 43 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 25 45 25 45 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 14 36 19 44 / 0 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 20 38 22 42 / 0 0 10 10
DURANT OK 30 45 25 52 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>019-
021>024-027-033>039-044.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>089.
&&
$$
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