000
FXUS64 KSHV 032102
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
302 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS SOUTHWARD TO PARIS TEXAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TEXAS.
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT RISK OF ANY
OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA.
BEHIND THE FRONT...REPORTS FROM MOST STATIONS ACROSS OKLAHOMA HAVE
CONSISTENTLY HELD ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH A KTXK-KTYR LINE BETWEEN 1800-2100
UTC...KSHV-KLFK NEAR 04/0000 UTC... THEN MOVE E OF THE MS RIVER A
LITTLE AFTER 04/0600 UTC. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT
AROUND 2100 UTC AND MOVE E WITH THE FRONT. FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY...WITH
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT. GUSTY S WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND DIMINISH IN SPEED ONLY SLIGHTLY. /23/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 43 53 32 51 31 / 70 0 0 0 0
MLU 45 49 32 49 30 / 80 0 0 0 0
DEQ 30 49 28 50 25 / 30 0 0 0 0
TXK 38 49 29 49 33 / 30 0 0 0 0
ELD 39 50 29 49 28 / 80 0 0 0 0
TYR 39 55 30 51 34 / 30 0 0 0 0
GGG 39 53 30 52 30 / 30 0 0 0 0
LFK 43 59 32 53 33 / 70 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
05/23
