000
FXUS62 KTAE 060736
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 AM EST TUE JAN 5 2009
AT 06Z THE STALLED FRONT WAS ORIENTED NE TO SW FROM NORTH GA TO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA
WAS CONTINUING TO PUMP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AS OF 06Z WERE WELL INTO THE 60S. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
GEORGIA ZONES. CURRENTLY THE DENSE FOG IS CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
THE BIG BEND BUT WAS EXPANDING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN GEORGIA AS
OF THIS WRITING.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL
FURTHER AMPLIFY THE ALREADY ESTABLISHED TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
TROUGH WILL SWING EAST TO A POSITION ALONG OR JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ON THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EAST TEXAS OR THE
EXTREME NW GULF AND LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE FRONT ENTERING
OVER WESTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH OUR
EASTERNMOST ZONES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF A SQUALL LINE. WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT SINCE FRIDAY AND THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER AGREES AS THEY HAVE ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF OUR CWA HIGHLIGHTED
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK THREAT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS BASICALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LEE COUNTY GA TO FRANKLIN COUNTY FL. THE GFS
SHOWS A 55-60+ KT 850-MB JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 155+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET ARRIVES FROM THE W. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS FROM
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES IN THE SQUALL LINE. A FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS. A SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER GA ZONES. OTHERWISE...SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FINISH OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR HIGH SURF
ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST. CURRENTLY WE ARE FORECASTING SURF
CONDITIONS TO REACH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA (6 FT) TONIGHT
AND THEN PEAK AT AROUND 8-9 FT WED OVER OUR W FACING BEACHES IN GULF
AND ERN BAY COUNTIES. ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO WLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WE
EXPECT VULNERABLE AREAS IN GULF COUNTY TO EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL SEE RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE CURRENT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE PRECIP FROM THE LAST PACKAGE WITH THE GFS SLOWING
DOWN AND NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF. QUESTIONS REMAIN HOWEVER...AS
TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING. ECMWF CLEARS THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS HANGS THE FRONT UP ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH AN
OVERRUNNING SITUATION DEVELOPING BY MONDAY...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CLOUD COVER ELEVATED AND 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL SET IN TODAY AND INCREASE
TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PEAK OVER 25 KNOTS AND GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF GALE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA UNTIL
SATURDAY WHEN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...SOLID DECK OF LIFR/VLIFR CIGS CURRENTLY COVERING ALL TAF
SITES. ALSO SEEING VSBY DROP OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH FOG/STRATUS
BURNING OFF BY MID MORNING. APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
KPFN/KDHN...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S. A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS FROM LATE THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO RED FLAG CONCERNS UNTIL THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FCST POINTS ON THE PEA RIVER CRESTED SUNDAY. ON THE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER...BOTH GENEVA AND PITTMAN WERE RISING...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THEIR FLOOD STAGES. ON THE KINCHAFOONEE
CREEK...PRESTON WAS NEARING ITS CREST OF A FOOT BELOW ACTION STAGE.
ALL REMAINING RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE HSA ARE EITHER IN RECESSION
OR AT BASE FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 77 59 66 37 67/ 10 60 50 00 00
PANAMA CITY 76 60 65 45 65/ 10 70 30 00 00
DOTHAN 78 58 61 39 64/ 20 80 30 00 00
ALBANY 78 57 63 40 65/ 10 70 50 00 00
VALDOSTA 78 59 67 39 65/ 10 50 60 00 00
CROSS CITY 77 60 69 38 67/ 10 40 60 10 00
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FOR BIG BEND.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TONIGHT E OF AAF.
&&
$$
BARRY/CAMP
