000
FXUS63 KDDC 032105
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM CANADA AND
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT COLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
12Z WITH MID LEVELS BECOMING SATURATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS COULD FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS BEFORE
THE CLOUDS COME IN AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE.
A WEAK VORT MAX IN WEST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SATURATED
MID LEVELS COULD GIVE SOME SNOW FLURRIES TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE COLD WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND LITTLE MIXING AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT
WARMER IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA. GFS AND UKMET 850MB TEMPS ARE
COLDER BY 00Z FRIDAY THAN THE WRF AND WILL HEDGE TOWARD THIS COLDER
FORECAST WITH -9C ON THE UKMET. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS WAY TOO WARM NEAR
40.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WITH AGAIN
MOSTLY SATURATED MID AND HIGH LEVELS. WITH SOME DYNAMICS COULD GET A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW FROM DODGE CITY AND NORTH WITH MAYBE A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH LATE.
ON FRIDAY LOOK FOR ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO BE EXITING THE AREA
TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. ALSO EXPECT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 12 TO 25 MPH. 850MB TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 0 TO -2C WITH HIGHS AROUND 38 TO 41.
DAYS 3-7...
QUITE A BIT OF FCST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TODAY WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. THE MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN SHOWING
LITTLE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO THE
EXTENT OF UPPER TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THE MODELS CONSISTENTLY LATCH ON TO A WET PATTERN
WITH A SLOW MOVING WESTERN TROUGH, THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD SURGE IN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ALSO
IN DOUBT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
BY DEC 13 THE ECMWF SHOWS SIGNS OF UPPER TROUGHING IN THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS. BUT AGAIN, EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DISPLAYED POOR CONSISTENCY OF
LATE AND FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 17 31 20 41 / 0 10 20 10
GCK 17 31 19 41 / 10 10 20 10
EHA 19 35 19 43 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 19 33 19 42 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 16 31 20 39 / 10 20 20 10
P28 19 34 22 40 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN06/24
