000
FXUS64 KHUN 032048
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
248 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV SATL IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPR WAVE DIGGING ACROSS WRN TX
AS A WEAK SFC LOW EXISTS AROUND THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE LEADING
EDGE OF A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT IS DRIVING SOUTH/EAST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CLOSER TO HOME...INCREASING SRLY LOW LVL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO APPROACH 60F THIS AFTN
ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS SHOWING OCNL WIND GUSTS 20-25MPH SO IT HAS
BEEN BREEZY AT TIMES. HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE WEST BUT
THE DEEPER MOISTURE /LOWER CLOUDS/ STILL REMAINS WEST OF THE MS RIVER
ATTM...WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP JUST YET.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ABOUT 3-6 HOURS SLOWER /THAN PREVIOUS RUNS/
WITH PROGRESSION OF AFOREMENTIONED SRN PLAINS SYSTEM...WITH UPR
DYNAMICS EVENTUALLY MEETING UP WITH BEST LOW LVL MOISTURE AND
FORCING BY 06Z ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY. AS THE UPR WAVE ACCELERATES
EAST...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SRLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE WITHIN
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NE AL/SRN TN. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE BTWN 12-18Z/THU AS SHEARING UPR LVL ENERGY INTERACTS
WITH COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED DESPITE
DECENT KINEMATICS...THUS REMOVED MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS. 30-40KTS
AT H85 COULD CREATE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN
WILL END WEST-TO-EAST THURS AFTN WITH GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1/10 TO 1/2 INCH EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURS NGT INTO FRIDAY WITH
COOLER...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPR LVL WAVES WITHIN
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BUT OTHER THAN PASSING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL EXIST.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE PREDICTING A SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOW
THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY OVER THE LWR MS/TN VLY REGION BY
TUESDAY. 12Z/GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THINGS COMING TOGETHER RATHER NICELY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FOR A
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA...THOUGH
DETAILS ARE LIMITED GIVEN THE EVENT IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. NADLER.83
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 44 46 29 45 26 / 60 80 10 0 0
SHOALS 48 48 27 44 26 / 80 80 0 0 0
CULLMAN 46 50 29 47 28 / 60 80 10 0 0
FAYETTEVILLE 43 45 27 42 23 / 60 80 0 0 0
ALBERTVILLE 43 48 31 45 28 / 50 80 10 0 0
FORT PAYNE 39 48 30 45 25 / 40 80 10 0 0
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DJN.83
