000
FXUS64 KLZK 032026
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
226 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CLOUD COVER CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE NATURAL STATE THIS
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN
TO FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WERE WARMER...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.
TEMPERATURES WERE RAPIDLY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH READINGS
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...WITH WINDS GUSTING FROM 30
TO 35 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST. WILL ALLOW THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STORMS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...THEREFORE ORGANIZATION OF STRONG STORMS
SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE BY 12Z THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ARKANSAS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF ARKANSAS...BUT DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSING. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GFS MODEL HAS CHANGED ITS THINKING VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND
NOW CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. LARGE DIFFERENCES NOW
EXIST BETWEEN WHAT HAPPENS TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND THE AMPLITUDE OF AN H5 RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BY
DAY SIX. UPPER LOW A NON FACTOR ACCORDING TO THE GFS AS IT REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA MOST OF THE PERIOD WHILE THE FEATURE GETS ABSORBED
INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. FEEL THE BEST CHOICE
OF ACTION IS TO BLEND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECWMF.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING...CHARACTERIZED
BY NEARLY PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS TROF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY ON THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FOR
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SLIPS
OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING ONCE AGAIN BUT
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY
TUESDAY AND EXITING BY THE END OF THE DAY. SYSTEMS LOOKS TO BE QUITE
DYNAMIC AND WILL BOOST POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REALLY COME INTO PLAY HERE AS ECMWF
DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE ON THE BOUNDARY WHILE GFS DOES NOT. IN
ADDITION THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER MOVING THE FRONT OUT. IF
ECMWF DOES COME TO FRUITION...SEVERE THREAT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
WILL NOT ADD ANY SEVERE WORDING TO ANY PRODUCTS WILL KEEP A WARY EYE
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS. OVERALL MEX/MAV NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND
ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 32 45 26 44 / 70 10 0 10
CAMDEN AR 38 51 28 48 / 50 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 27 43 23 41 / 50 10 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 34 50 27 47 / 60 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 36 49 28 46 / 60 10 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 38 49 30 48 / 70 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 33 48 26 47 / 50 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 29 43 24 42 / 60 10 0 10
NEWPORT AR 34 46 28 43 / 70 10 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 38 49 30 47 / 60 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 32 46 27 44 / 50 10 0 10
SEARCY AR 34 47 28 44 / 60 10 0 10
STUTTGART AR 37 48 29 46 / 50 10 0 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60 / LONG TERM...56
