000
FXUS61 KBTV 032138
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
438 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL
TURN TO ALL SNOW AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT BY LATE THURSDAY. COLD
AIR WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL A QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION ALTHOUGH INTIAL CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE SPREADING
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
PAST RUNS WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ROLLING THRU THE
REGION. INITAL PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
REGION ABOUT 06Z...AND BY 12Z THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH ALL SNOW ABOVE ROUGHTLY
1000FT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE ST
LAWRENCE AND CHAMP VALLEYS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ALREADY
BLOWING ABOUT 25KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...AND SUSPECT SOME 30KT
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONITE THERE. OVER LAND WONT BE THAT
STRONG...BUT MSS AND BTV SHOULD HAVE GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS LATE
TONITE. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY...SHOULD FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT
THEN BEGIN STEADYING OFF OR RISING BY LATE EVG ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF CWA INTO THE CHAMP VALLEY. NE KINGDOM WILL BE THE COLD SPOT
TONITE AND WONT HAVE ANY WARMING INFLUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EST WEDNESDAY...COUPLE OF CONCERNS THRU THE PERIOD.
FIRST IS THE COLD FRONT. THAT WILL MARCH STEADILY ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING...REACHING NH BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THUS MOST REGIONS WILL REACH THEIR HIGHS EARLY. STRONG CAA WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE GOOD MIXING
TO HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL
SNOW...BUT PRIMARY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THINKING 3-4" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DACKS WITH 2-3" ACROSS NRN
GREENS AND NE KINGDOM. MUCH LESS HERE IN THE CHAMP VALLEY AS THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY AND THEN WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED TO
ISSUE ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MAY BE UNDERCALLING
SOME OF THE ACCUMULATIONS. CHILLY AIR (-12 TO -15C AT 850MB) ROLLS
INTO THE AREA THUR NITE INTO FRIDAY...SO DEFINATELY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AND STRUGGLING TO HIT 30F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS ON FRI. MOST
OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT OFF
ONTARIO WILL BE GOING FULL STEAM. INITIALLY STREAMERS WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHWRS POSSIBLE FOR SRN
ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWEST FRI NITE INTO SATURDAY AND
THIS MAY PUT PORTIONS OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN DACKS
UNDER THE GUN FOR LOCALIZED MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT COMES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN
HWO...WAY TO EARLY TO CALL FOR ANY DETAILS. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
FOR SATURDAY WAY OUT WEST...OTHERWISE SUB NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE.
FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL BE IN HERE FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EST WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AND CONFIDENCE NOT
ALL THAT HIGH. PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH LATEST GMOS GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING THRU ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE BUT COLD TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PRETTY GOOD FLUFF FACTOR...SO WE MAY BE LOOKING AT MARGINAL
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS (4") IN MOST AREAS. FAST MOVING FLOW SO WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS AREA ON MONDAY...THEN PERHAPS MORE
PRECIP FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BEEN LOTS OF BACK AND FORTH ON
WHAT WILL HAPPEN FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. CHANCE OF A
LITTLE MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA. RIGHT NOW WILL
GO WITH GFS SOLUTION SHOWING INTIAL WAA SNOWS THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO WEDNESDAY. 12Z ECWMF SAYS BY WEDNESDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE COAST. LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL
CHANGES BEFORE THEN.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING THEN BY 06Z MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS RN/SN
DEVELOPS. PRECIP RAPIDLY SPREADS EAST...REACHING SLK BY 10Z WITH
IFR CONDITIONS THERE IN -SN...AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS BTV/MPV/RUT
SITES. MTNS WILL ALSO BECOME OBSCURED. LLWS MAY ALSO BECOME AN
ISSUE LATE TONITE AT SOME SITES AS WINDS AT 2000-3000FT EXPECTED
TO APPROACH 40KTS BY 12Z THURSDAY.
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE THUR NITE WITH VFR MOST
AREAS BY FRIDAY. STILL LIKELY SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NRN NY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SIMILAR FOR SATURDAY.
POSSIBLE IFR IN ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY WITH SN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AND THEN BACK TO VFR/LCL MVFR ON MONDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT KRUT (RUTLAND-
SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT) CONTINUES TO REPORT ERRONEOUS
DEW POINT DATA...AND THUS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DATA FOR THIS
SITE IS ALSO ERRONEOUS. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT KRUT. IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME THIS WEEK AT THE
EARLIEST BEFORE THE DEW POINT SENSOR AT KRUT CAN BE REPAIRED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MCGILL/NASH
EQUIPMENT...BTV
