000
FXUS63 KGLD 032348
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MST WED DEC 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...
250 PM MST WED DEC 3 2008
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S UNDER
PARTIAL INSOLATION. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH H7 WAA
PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE 1-3 INCHES COULD EASILY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CAPTURED THE EXPECTED SCENARIO WELL. TRENDED POPS UP/TEMPERATURES
DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED. ANY LINGERING SNOW THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
FRI-SAT...THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A MID/UPPER RIDGE
WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON SUNDAY. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER
FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WHILE THE ECMWF AND A FEW
00Z GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT MORE RIDGING/SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS THEME WITH HIGHS NEAR 60
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AS H5 TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RA/SN GIVEN
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF. SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS
ON TUE WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY/POSSIBLE FROPA WED.
&&
.AVIATION...
448 PM MST WED DEC 3 2008
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
STRATUS DECK AROUND 6-7KFT AT KGLD. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KGLD AFTER 12Z REDUCING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR. THE PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF KMCK-IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT I CHOSE TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF. HOWEVER, KMCK WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO A STRATUS DECK AFTER 16Z.
KJ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
