000
FXUS61 KILN 032349
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
749 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RAIN IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS
OVER SO ENDED FLOOD WATCH. SEVERAL RIVER POINTS ARE IN FLOOD.
INFORMATION ON AREA RIVERS CAN BE ACCESSED ON THE WEB AT
HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ILN ALL LOWER CASE.
SATELLITE AND OBS INDICATE DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WEST IN A DRY
SLOT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES FALL OFF TO THE UPPER 30S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE COOL AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE DISTURBANCE AS IT PUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO RIVER FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COOL AIRMASS MAY BRING PATCHY FROST
AS READINGS FALL TO THE MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN STRONG AGREEMENT TO START
OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WAS NEGLIGIBLE AND CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT FORECAST SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE HERE.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO WORK EAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME AS IT GETS PULLED INTO THE LARGER LOW
STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. THE UPPER LOW IS
WEAKENING AS IT INITIALLY IS RUNNING THROUGH A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE TAKING AIM ON THE OHIO VALLEY BY
THE LATE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT IS
BEING OFFERED OTHER THAN A PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE FLOW AS H5
REMAINS ZONAL WEST NORTHWESTERLY. A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY IS BEING PROGGED TO SET UP STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND
THEN LIFTING INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
COULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS BUT WAS ABLE TO KEEP THE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPERATURES
IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SOAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IF THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED E OF THE TAFS....LEAVING VFR CIGS.
ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE LONGWAVE H5 TROF AXIS TO SWING INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS THEY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO
THE AREA AFT 06Z WITH SOME SCT SHRA. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF VCSH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED.
MVFR CIGS AND VCSH WILL LINGER THRU 18Z WHEN THE TROF AXIS SWINGS
THRU. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCT OUT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY....THEN AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...SITES
