000
FXUS62 KTBW 031830
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS DRIFTING WEST
OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE REGION. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S
INLAND NATURE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTH.
ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE QUICKLY BY WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA THUS CAUSING THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AND
WEAKEN AS IT GETS CLOSER. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF AND ALONG IT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA FRIDAY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY THE NATURE COAST. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND LEAVE POPS AT 10 PERCENT AND WAIT TO
SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AND ALONG THE COAST FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTHWARD THANKS TO THE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST OFF THE
RELATIVELY COOL GULF.
.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-WED)...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING ONLY PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. ANOTHER
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
HAVE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS CURRENTLY
GOOD MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE WITH IT. WILL ADJUST WITH FUTURE RUNS AS TIMING AND
CONSISTENCY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4
FEET INTO SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 49 75 56 76 / 0 0 5 10
FMY 50 78 56 79 / 0 0 5 10
GIF 48 75 54 77 / 0 0 5 10
SRQ 48 75 55 76 / 0 0 5 10
BKV 39 74 46 75 / 0 0 5 10
SPG 55 74 60 75 / 0 0 5 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE....69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
