000
FXUS61 KBGM 032039
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
339 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW FLURRIES... AND SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AT SUNSET... DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING BY MID-
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATER
TONIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT...
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU TOWARD DAYBREAK. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE ON HILL TOPS. A
SMALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY 12Z OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ON HILLS. EVEN
HILL TOPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY
SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME OF THE HIGHER HILLS WHERE A
SMALL... SLUSHY BIT OF ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR. THE 12Z NAM SLOWS
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST PA... WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND LATEST 18Z NAM ARE FASTER WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION INDICATING LITTLE CHC FOR MUCH OF
AN ACCUMULATION. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT FOR HIGH CHC
TO LOW LIKELY POPS IN NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING... WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
NEXT CONCERN IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A 270 TO 280 FLOW FOR AWHILE ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF
SNOW TO EFFECT NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS THE CORE OF
THIS BAND JUST NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A MAJOR EVENT AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 750-800 MB AND WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT PROGGED
TO BE VERY STRONG... ONLY 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER.
SOUNDINGS ALSO APPEAR TO DRY OUT QUITE A BIT AFTER ABOUT 09Z AT
SYR INDICATING THAT SOME DRY AIR COULD GET INJESTED INTO THE BAND
FROM THE SOUTH. OUR HISTORICAL ANALOGUE APPLICATION INDICATES
MAINLY ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS TYPE OF EVENT. HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME AS EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 7 INCH RANGE. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO
BE MONITORED AS A SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TREND TO THIS EXPECTED BAND
COULD STILL RESULT IN WARNING ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF ONEIDA COUNTY. SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
LIKELY STRETCH EAST OF LAKE ERIE INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY... WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN OUR COUNTIES.
EXPECT THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW CHANCES OVER ONEIDA COUNTY GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY LATE FRIDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY IN THE EXTENDED...WITH FAIRLY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME RANGE. LARGE VORTEX REMAINS
LOCKED IN OVER NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO
PROMINENT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST COMES
SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE AREA...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT UPPER WAVE SPAWNING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN US
COAST. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SHSN/LIGHT SNOW AS THIS PASSES...WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE. H85 RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY SO
ANY LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION TUESDAY AND BY
THIS POINT...THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
DIVERGE...WITH POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COMPLICATING MATTERS. ALL POSSIBILITIES...FROM A LIGHT SNOW...TO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT ARE IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
HAVE KEPT CHC RA/SN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL...AND
WARM TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR ALL SITES ATTM WITH JUST A FEW AC CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/LOWER AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. EXPECT
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY WITH
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. EXPECT MORE SNOW TO MIX IN AT
RME/ITH/BGM WHERE SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT SYR/ELM/AVP
TO REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH 18Z WITH MVFR AT SYR/ELM AND VFR AT
AVP THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ALSO...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...EXPECT
LLWS TO DEVELOP WITH 2KFT WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 40KTS. THE
LLWS WILL DIMINISH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10KTS THIS EVENING. DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN AROUND 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SHSN MAY IMPACT RME...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MAIN BAND WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS SITE WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CNY.
FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR SHSN POSSIBLE OVER CNY.
SATURDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ALL SITES.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR ALL SITES IN SHSN.
MONDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXCEPT MORNING MVFR SHSN POSSIBLE
SYR/RME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JMA
AVIATION...JMA
