000
FXUS64 KMRX 061503 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1003 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN TN BORDER WILL BE
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS PRECIP APPEARS
TO BE ENHANCED BY CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT 850 MB JET.
AS THE MIDWEST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...THE PRECIP AREA WILL MOVE NORTH.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE GREATEST OVER MIDDLE TN...AND
CYCLOGENESIS IN THIS AREA WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 3-4
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME SLIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE 850 THETA-E VALUES ARE HIGHEST.
THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT THE REST OF THE
AREA LOOKS QUITE STABLE. THE UPDATE WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTH...AND LOWER COVERAGE TO ISOLATED IN
THE SOUTH. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO QPF AMOUNTS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CHEROKEE...CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...BRADLEY...
CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...
GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...
MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST
CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...NORTHWEST
MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...
SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...UNION...WASHINGTON
TN...WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
DGS
