000
FXUS61 KBOX 032213
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
513 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY GRAZE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
WINTRY WEATHER LATE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN OVERNIGHT WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING EFFECTS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST
MA...TO MAINLY THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO ALLOW AREAS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST TO SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL START THE DAY BETWEEN +4C AND +6C AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO BETWEEN 50 AND 55
DEGREES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE THAT
MILD AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40
MPH ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
WE SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH ENOUGH FORCING
AND DYNAMICS AVAILABLE FOR A BRIEF BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE
BEFORE IT ENDS...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY ACCUMULATION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT WITH TOTAL QPF OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS ACROSS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT USHERS IN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
THIS BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME WE START WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WHICH
CHANGES OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION WARM UP. HIGHER TERRAIN ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND THAN BACK TO SNOW ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD SEE ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN/EVE...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE AT ANY TERMINALS THIS FAR OUT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT DURING
THE MORNING. COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR MAY DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SCT LATE DAY SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH PROBABILITY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR EXCEPT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. NW WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS DEVELOP BY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MON.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ON OCEAN WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS...THEREFORE HAVE
CANCELLED THE CURRENT SCA. HOWEVER...AS DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS ON ALL ZONES BUT ANZ230 AND ANZ236 LIKELY REACHING 25 KT
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT ON THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AS WELL. GUSTS ON ANZ230 AND ANZ236 WILL LIKELY REACH 25 KT
EARLY THU MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A 6 HR WINDOW BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z WHERE WINDS
WILL GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR
AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. THEREFORE...HAVE PUT UP A GALE WARNING. WINDS
DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO FRI WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATER ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOST LIKELY NEEDED WITH PERHAPS
GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-254-255.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
