000
FXUS63 KLMK 032304
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
604 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTN TO BE REPLACED BY TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THU.
ATTM...RADAR INDICATING SCT LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FALLING FROM CLOUDS
IN THE 3K TO 5K FOOT RANGE WITH A DRY LAYER BELOW THAT. MOST OF THE
PCPN IS EVAPORATING IN THIS DRY LAYER. EXPECT VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS...
MAINLY TRACES THE REST OF THE AFTN FOR THOSE AREAS MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF LOUISVILLE.
TWO SHRTWV TROFS...WITH THE STRONGER ONE IN THE SRN STREAM (OVER
SERN NEW MEXICO) WILL ADVANCE EWD THRU THIS PERIOD...WITH THE NRN
TROF (ACRS THE UPR MS VLY) PROPELLING A CDFNT INTO AND THRU OUR FA
BY 12Z THU. STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROF/LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
...AS SEEN ON THE WSR-88D VWP (SHOWING A SWLY 50K LO LEVEL JET) WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT/MOISTURE FOR RAIN TONIGHT. STRONG LO LVL CAA WILL
SETTLE IN EARLY THU IN POST FRONTAL AMS.
CDFNT SHUD BE NEAR THE OH RIVER IN NCNTRL KY BY 06Z AND THRU OUR
SERN MOST COUNTIES BY 12Z THU. MODEL SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
NAM WHICH IS A BIT COLDER WITH DEEPER MOISTURE UP TO THE ICE CRYSTAL
FORMATION TEMP...IMPLIES RAIN WOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR NWRN MOST COUNTIES AS THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS
TO AROUND 1000 FEET. THIS TREND WOULD CONTINUE SEWD THRU SUNRISE THU
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S(NW) TO MID 30S (SE). GFS
IS NOT AS MOIST IN THE ICE CRYSTAL ZONE WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVG OUT BEFORE A CHGOVER TO ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW WOULD OCCUR. WILL
MAKE ONLY SUBTLE CHGS TO GOING FORECAST TO STAY CONSISTENT...IN
OTHER WORDS...RAIN GOING TO A MIX AND ENDING AS FLURRIES/GRAUPEL.
TEMPS WILL NOT RISE THU...TIL SOME SUNSHINE ARRIVES MIDDAY OR AFTN.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS WITH GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AS A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
FORECAST WERE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES LINGERING
ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH MOST AREAS PROBABLY
RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RETURN FLOW WILL WARM THE AREA UP A BIT ON MONDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE NORTH. TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENSEMBLES
SHOW A DECENT CHANCE FOR A GOOD PRECIPITATION EVENT ON TUESDAY AS
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GULF COAST AND PULLS AMPLE MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION COUPLED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE OMEGA ON TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE PERIOD
TO WATCH FOR TRENDS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO BRING EITHER ALL RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RAIN
SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH
AND DROP DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...
A MESSY TAF PERIOD. AT 23Z A COLD FRONT REACHED FROM GARY
INDIANA...TO CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI...TO HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...CROSSING THE TAF
SITES IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. FROPA WILL RESULT IN AN ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AS IT PASSES BY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE
LOWEST FLIGHT CATEGORIES WRT TO CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING PUSH. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE FIRST
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON THEN SHOULD BE VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN. MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN AT SDF
TOWARDS DAWN BUT BY THEN THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITED AND IT MAY BE
MORE OF A FROZEN DRIZZLE/SNOW PELLET SORT OF SCENARIO AND IT SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT.
WINDS THIS EVENING BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 2000 FEET ARE BRISK BUT
NOT QUITE TO LLWS CRITERIA. HOWEVER LOOKING A LITTLE HIGHER UP ON
THE KLVX VWP...WINDS AT 4000 FEET AT 23Z WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
55KT.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
SHORT TERM...KIRKPATRICK
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION.....13
