Lawrenceville Weather

US Weather Forecast Center

Weather for Beckley, West Virginia

 

Lat: 37.79N, Lon: 81.19W Wx Zone: WVZ035

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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KRLX 032103
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLIPPER
SYSTEM WITH MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FAIRLY QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH THE RUC13 DOING A GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP ON THE CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE HOLDING CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM.  WITH THE CLOUDS COMING IN WELL AHEAD THE TEMPERATURES WILL
KEEP ABOVE FREEZING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THE SHOWERS WILL BE RAIN
RATHER THEN SNOW.  THOUGHT ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN MOVES IN DURING THE MORNING BUT
KEPT THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND CLOUDS COMING IN.  AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS.  BACK END OF
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF FAST AS MOISTURE IS RIGHT WITH THE FRONT SO
THE ONLY PLACE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH AN INCH OR TWO COULD RESULT THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURE TRACE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE NONE DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
COMES IN DURING THE DAY.  LOOKING FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 13 TO 15Z
OHIO RIVER AND AROUND 18Z CRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
POPS SHOULD BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO
SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

WITH 850 THERMAL TROF AROUND MINUS 10C ON FRIDAY AND UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES PASSING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THINKING
THEIR COULD BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AT VARIOUS LEVELS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.  COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SOME 20 POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FOR NOW...BUT
EVEN THOSE MINIMUM POPS DROP EVEN LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES ON THE TIMING ON THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONSOLIDATING
AND DEEPENING QUICKLY OFF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. WENT LIKELY POP AFTER
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.  OF COURSE...DURATION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHORTER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  EVENT TRANSITIONS INTO WIND BLOWN SNOW SHOWERS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY DAWN SUNDAY. COULD NOT RULE OUT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS IF PCPN REACHES THE GROUND IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SNOW.  HAVE THIS EVENT...LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY....IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KEKN
INDICATES SOMEWHAT IDEA CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE FLOW AS AIRMASS WILL
PLENTY COLD...-12 TO-20 DEGC...AND WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY.
ONLY NEGATIVE THING IS IT APPEARS MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE DRYING OUT
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...STILL FEEL LIKELY POPS
WILL BE WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.  ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HAVE 50 POPS
WITH LESSOR VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHUT-OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.  MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS
BEFORE IT ENDS.  BUT WILL NOT ADD THIS DETAIL AT THIS TIME.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.  HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE REGION.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH IN MONDAY NIGHT.

HAVE FOLLOWED HPC THOUGHTS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THEY
INDICATE THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY IN OUR VICINITY.  AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THE
SECOND LOW WILL PULL EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HAVE TWEAKED MAXT/MINT GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING WITH HPC AND
12 UTC MEX NUMBERS.  HAVE ALSO USED MEX COOP MOS TO TWEAK TEMPS AT
SNOWSHOE DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...
CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL STAY REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.  TOWARDS
12Z AS THE FRONT NEARS THE OHIO RIVER THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING.  3 TO 5 MILE VSBYS COULD BE
EXPERIENCED IN THE PRECIPITATION. BY MID DAY THURSDAY SOME IFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY/...POSSIBLE IFR THU MORNING IN
RAIN SHOWERS. CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE IFR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HARDWARE / PART/ FAILURE AT CKB ASOS. CKB WILL HAVE INCOMPLETE OR
MISSING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JSH/AAR
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...AAR
EQUIPMENT...KTB


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