000
FXUS64 KLCH 032039 AAA
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
239 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
SYNOPSIS... A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY NEAR PARIS TEXAS WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BEEN SUBSTAINED AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS REPORTED FROM 30 TO
40 MPH. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS DIVING DOWN THROUGH CENTAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS OVER OUR AREA HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE IN THE LAKES REGION
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT AND PUSHING INTO ACADIANA BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE H3
JETSTREAK COULD ENHANCE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT BUT
SURFACE INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LIMITED PER RUC AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO 700 J/KG. I THINK
MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. I WILL NOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH
BY MID DAY THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY, I DO NOT
EXPECT THE TEMPS TO GET OUT OF THE 50S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
COLD DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR COMES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPS SEASONABLE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
TONIGHT`S EVENT WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER STRONG
LOW PRESSURE AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHING TRHOUGH THE REGION
ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A
STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BY GUSTY THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT AND CLEAR OUR EASTERN MARINE ZONES BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
GRIFFIN
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 51 58 36 55 34 / 70 40 10 10 10
KBPT 48 58 36 55 34 / 70 20 10 10 10
KAEX 46 55 32 53 30 / 70 20 10 10 10
KLFT 54 58 36 54 35 / 70 60 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...IBERIA...
JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM CAMERON,
LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GRIFFIN
