000
FXUS61 KCAR 031945
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
245 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
POUR INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY REINFORCING THE
COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO
THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT M/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT A CLEAR START TO THE EVENING THEN INCREASING
CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SNOW OR RAINSHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS DOWNEAST AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. HOWEVER THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE WITH REGARD TO MUCH
COLDER AIR THAT IS EXPECTED TO POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LOW 20S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...HOWEVER
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN
IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH LOW POPS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/SREF. FOR WINDS USED NAM12. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
USED GMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN RE-DEVELOP OFF OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. GFS THEN MOVES
THE DEVELOPING LOW NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES GRAZING THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF TRACK IS FURTHER
TO THE WEST LAST FEW RUNS. HAVE NOTICED THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS
HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WEST AS WELL LAST TWO RUNS. HAVE USED GMOS
POPS FOR MONDAY...GMOS CHANCE POPS MAY BE TOO LOW AND WOULD
RECOMMEND RAISING NUMBERS IF GFS CONTINUES TO TREND WEST NEXT RUN.
FOR REMAINDER OF GRIDS HAVE USED GMOS. ONLY MODIFICATION WAS TO
ADJUST SKY/POP GRIDS FOR BETTER COMPATIBILITY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SNOW OR
RAINSHOWERS DURING THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KCAR/KPQI WHICH MAY HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCA/S HAVE ALREADY
BEEN ISSUES THROUGH THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS MAY THEN PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND
GFS40. AFTER 00Z SUNDAY USED GMOS WINDS. FOR WAVES HAVE POPULATED
ALL GRIDS WITH WNA/4. WAVE MODEL LOOKS REASONABLE SO HAVE NOT MADE
ANY MODIFICATIONS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA
MARINE...DUDA/MIGNONE
