000
FXUS65 KBOU 032106
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
205 PM MST WED DEC 3 2008
.SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM WYOMING HAS SET
UP A COUPLE OF SNOW BANDS NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER TODAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER WESTERN KANSAS HAS HELPED KEEP UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TO KEEP GOOD CLOUD COVER AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SECOND
SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT ENHANCING UPSLOPE
FLOW ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 12Z ALONG WITH WEAK QG ASCENT. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW ALONG THE CO-WY BORDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE BY 12Z. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON WEST FACING HIGHER SLOPES.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE GREATEST COLD ADVECTION AND GOOD PVA
ALOFT TO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA...GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS. EXPECT ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE WITH ONLY ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES ON THE
PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING THURSDAY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS ON THE PLAINS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY. SKIES MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS FLOW
TURNS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH...BUT A VERY COLD NIGHT IS STILL IN
STORE AS READINGS IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO 10F OR LESS IN THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER SO FAR.
FRIDAYS WARMUP WILL BE HAMPERED BY SNOW COVER SO HAVE LOWERED THEM
SEVERAL DEGREES AS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40F WITH LACK OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WILL ALSO DELAY THE WEEKEND WARMUP JUST A BIT WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS LINGERING SATURDAY BEFORE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WARMING KICKS IN BY SUNDAY.
THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED
TROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE A WEAK
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY SO KEPT THE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY
ON THE PLAINS BUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
$$
.AVIATION...MFVR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF -SHSN THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING
TOWARDS 12Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
KRIEDERMAN/BARJENBRUCH
