000
FXUS62 KFFC 070006
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
806 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH GA ON THURSDAY. THESE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS AND COMBINED
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND APPROACH GA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE LIFT AND THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR TWO INCHES WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE TSTM POPS TO LIKELY OVER NORTH GA ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE
CENTRAL GA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED.
GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE USED.
16
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-07
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 104 1930 68 1979 76 1930 59 1972
1902
KATL 100 1954 66 1892 76 1931 58 1940
1902
1881
KCSG 104 1977 76 1994 79 1990 63 1988
1964
KMCN 104 1990 74 1916 76 1931 40 1897
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS INDICATE A GOOD SOUTHWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT READY TO BITE
JUST YET AND WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW FOR THE
NORTH WITH MID RANGE POPS TO THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIE
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH VALUES APPROACHING THE CENTURY
MARK AS HEIGHTS RISE. ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LACK SIGNIFICANT
UPDRAFTS AS LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK DUE TO MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASING
TO 3 C FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SO FAR ISOLATED CONVECTION STAYING AWAY FROM TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY STORM IN THE
VICINITY SO HAVE HELD ON TO "CB" FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE...EXCEPT MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG/HAZE (10Z- 13Z TIME FRAME).
WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS LOOK GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE GONE WITH JUST PROB30 FOR NOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND WINDS...MEDIUM ON VSBY
MEDIUM ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
49
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 95 69 92 69 / 50 30 60 40
ATLANTA 91 72 91 72 / 50 30 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 85 64 83 65 / 60 20 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 91 67 92 69 / 60 20 40 20
COLUMBUS 95 73 95 73 / 40 30 50 20
GAINESVILLE 90 69 89 71 / 60 30 40 30
MACON 96 71 95 72 / 40 30 50 40
ROME 91 69 92 70 / 60 20 40 20
PEACHTREE CITY 92 68 92 69 / 50 30 30 20
VIDALIA 94 73 94 75 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
