000
FXUS64 KBMX 032110
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
310 PM CST WED DEC 3 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE PERIOD...NO MAJOR CHANGES
INTRODUCED. STILL EXPECTING MODERATE COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH
THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVENING HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT. FIGURING THAT THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL
NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE QPF VALUES OR EVEN
SCATTERED THUNDER...HOWEVER FEEL THE LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES IN THE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE CATEGORY. FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE RAISING THE DEWPOINTS
AND ADJUSTING POP AND WX TO TRY AND TIME OUT THE SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO PUT ISOLATED THUNDER FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I20...MAINLY BECAUSE TRENDS SLOWING THE FROPA
DOWN HAVE ACTED TO CREATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY DURING THE
PEAK AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW...ALBEIT MARGINAL AT BEST.
FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE TWO FOLD...ONE...THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON A CONTINUALLY SLOWER PROGRESSION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST LOOK AT HOW THE NEXRAD COMPARES TO
12Z RUNS. TWO...THE QPF HAS REALLY STRUGGLED...ESPECIALLY AS THE
RAIN SHIELD VENTURES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. I AM MORE
CONCERNED ABOUT NUMBER ONE...WHICH IF IT HAPPENS MAY ACTUALLY TAKE
CARE OF THE SECOND PART BY ALLOWING MORE...AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF TIME. SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THAT PLAYS OUT.
BEYOND THURSDAY...LOOKING AT A WAVE OF CAA FOLLOWED BY AN
ADDITIONAL DRY FRONT ON SATURDAY THAT WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO OUR AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD
ON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY KEEPING US ON THE COOLER AND RELATIVELY
DRIER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT BAD FOR DECEMBER.
THE WEATHER REMAINS INTERESTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE MODELS FINALLY AGREE ON A PRETTY SHARP NORTHERN SYSTEM DIGGING
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
CHANCE TO EVEN LIKELY SHOWERS FOR THE DAY 7 AND 8 PERIODS.
17/KLAWS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 39 51 29 53 27 / 20 80 20 10 10
ANNISTON 39 54 32 54 29 / 10 80 20 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 44 52 32 52 29 / 30 80 20 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 46 54 32 54 29 / 50 90 10 10 10
CALERA 46 54 33 54 30 / 20 90 20 10 10
AUBURN 43 58 36 54 31 / 10 70 50 10 10
MONTGOMERY 45 61 38 58 34 / 10 90 30 10 10
TROY 45 62 40 58 34 / 10 70 40 10 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES WEST OF A DOUBLE
SPRINGS TO SELMA LINE FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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