000
FXUS63 KIND 040444
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 PM EST WED MAR 3 2010
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z-06Z TAFS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING EVENING
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO BE OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 06Z FRIDAY.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PERSIST OVER FORECAST AREA
AS HIGH MOVES EAST.
DUE TO DRY AIR AND INFLUENCE OF HIGH...EITHER NO CEILINGS OR
CEILINGS 12 THOUSAND FEET OR HIGHER THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES CONTINUING P6SM IN DRY AIR.
&&
.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME MID CLOUD WAS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...BUT THIS ONLY LOOKS TO BRIEFLY
SLOW THE TREND THERE. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
ALL AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP TO REFLECT
THIS TREND...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
OK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AT 19Z...TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 UNDER A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH ANY BREAKS
QUICKLY FILLING BACK IN WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...W/
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND EAST COAST
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT ONLY INFLUENCE WILL BE ON REMAINING
CLOUD COVER. MORNING MODEL RUNS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...AND A
BLEND WAS USED.
SATELLITE AND RUC MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST STEADY CLEARING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF
RESTRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TOWARD MORNING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LATE...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. OVERALL TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE TOWARD CLEARER SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA.
ON TEMPS...MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAR OUTPERFORM THE MUCH COOLER
MET GUIDANCE...A REVERSAL OF FORTUNES NOW THAT A BROAD SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK IS NO LONGER PRESENT TO INFLUENCE TEMPS. MAV LOOKS MUCH
BETTER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GIVEN EXPECTED 850 MB TEMP EVOLUTION
AND ANTICIPATED SKY COVER.
IN THE EXTENDED...VARIOUS LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN
TIMING OF MAJOR FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THUS LEANED HEAVILY
ON A MIX GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND A MIX OF MEANS AND ENSEMBLE HIGHS
ON TEMPS...AS RIDGING SHOULD PROMOTE TEMPS TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE UPSHOT OF WHICH BEING TEMPS REMAINING AT
OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
PUBLIC...NIELD
AVIATION...KOCH/KWIATKOWSKI
