000
FXUS62 KTAE 031726
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1245 PM EST WED DEC 3 2008
.SYNOPSIS...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...CONTINUES
TO HOLD IN STRONGLY JUST TO OUR NE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COLD
AIR AT THE SFC EARLY THIS MORNING...TAE`S 12 UTC SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE COLUMN FROM 1000-300 MB HAS WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...BETWEEN 850 MB
AND 450 MB THE AVERAGE WARMING IS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS
...WHICH IS QUITE A MARKED CHANGE FOR ONLY 24 HRS. THIS IS ALLOWING
FOR SFC TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED WARMUP EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES FURTHER TO OUR NE. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE INCREASING GRADUALLY TO 10 TO 15
KTS FROM W TO E.
&&
.SHORT TERM...IN SPITE OF THE WARMUP ALOFT...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD
STILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENOUGH OF POSITION TO ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER INTERIOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
OVER PARTS OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...WITH PATCHY FROST EXPECTED
TO THE EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. ON THURSDAY...THE SFC RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY EASTWARD OFF THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE
NW. HIGH TEMPS MAY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...AND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN
FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS COLD AS THE ONE EARLY IN THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH WED...
THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS FROM SWRN CANADA.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SERN STATES
FRI NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITING THE E COAST BY SUN
MORNING. WITH GULF MOISTURE EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF...EXPECT A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT SAT. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS THAN ITS PREDECESSOR
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS SUN AND MON. THE HIGH EXITS THE E COAST MON
NIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE CWA TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. THE 02/12Z EURO IS TRENDING SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN THE GEM.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF POSSIBLE SCEC NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN LEGS. AFTER
ANOTHER LULL ON FRI AFTN THRU SAT...STRONGER NW-N WINDS WILL RETURN
TO THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MAY LEAD TO A FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE PFN
TERMINAL...BUT CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. INCREASING CI WILL SPREAD
OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE COMING IN
TOMORROW EVENING. INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN SCT AT OUR WESTERN TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 18Z. RAIN CHANCES
WILL HOLD OFF AT THESE TERMINALS AS WELL UNTIL AFTER 18Z...SO NO
MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER THE BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE SE
FL BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIM LEON...
JEFFERSON...GADSDEN...AND WAKULLA COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING...AS IT
NO LONGER APPEARS THAT 4 HR RH DURATIONS WILL BE MET IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 34 72 48 63 41 / 00 20 30 20 10
PANAMA CITY 47 71 50 62 43 / 05 30 30 20 10
DOTHAN 40 68 42 60 37 / 05 40 30 10 10
ALBANY 36 70 44 60 38 / 00 30 30 20 10
VALDOSTA 33 72 47 64 43 / 00 10 30 30 10
CROSS CITY 33 73 49 69 46 / 00 10 30 30 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM TODAY EST FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
DIXIE...LAFAYETTE...MADISON...AND TAYLOR.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GODSEY
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
